000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292155
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE NEAR 16.5N 112.1W 1003 MB AT 2100 UTC SEP 29 
MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS TO
45 KT. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...A BAND OF CONVECTION FED 
BY GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 122W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. NO CONVECTION IS 
NOTED AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO A REGION UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 9N85W 13N100W 13N115W 10N125W 
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 103W 
AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE FAR WESTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO IS THE DOMINANT UPPER FEATURE. THIS IS MAINTAINING 
MODERATE ELY SHEAR OVER E PACIFIC WATERS S OF 18N. WEAK LOW LEVEL  
CONVERGENCE AND MODERATE SHEAR ALOFT ARE INHIBITING ITCZ CONVECTION 
E OF 100W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SW SIDE OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE 
COMBINED WITH FRESH SWLY WINDS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA S OF 
THE ITCZ W OF 100W ARE PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED 
DEVELOPMENT OF T.S. JULIETTE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. IT SHOULD 
WEAKEN AFTER SUNDAY HOWEVER AS IT MOVES INTO A REGION OF DRIER AND 
MORE STABLE AIR WITH INCREASING SHEAR ALOFT. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO 
FRESH NLY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA THROUGH 
SUN NIGHT AS HIGHER DENSITY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FUNNELS OUT OF THE 
GULF OF MEXICO. FRESH NLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH OFF THE NRN BAJA COAST.

W OF 120W...UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N120W TO 22N132W. UPPER 
RIDGE AXIS IS SITUATED W OF THE TROUGH. THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN 
THE TWO SYSTEMS IS BRINGING MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR OVER THE 
REGION...SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. A SURFACE RIDGE 1025 MB 
CENTERED NW OF THE AREA IS MOVING GRADUALLY SE. TRADE FLOW WILL 
INCREASE BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES RIDGE AND T.S. JULIETTE.
$$

MUNDELL