000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290933
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E NEAR 15.1N 111.1W 1006 MB AT 0900 
UTC SEP 29 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER WITH A NEW BAND FORMING N 
OF THE CENTER. GOOD OUTFLOW NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 121W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT. NO ORGANIZED 
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. WAVE ENTERING AREA OF VERY DRY MID AND 
UPPER ATMOSPHERE. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 10N92W 15N107W 12N122W 10N131W 
12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8N89W TO 12N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN 115W AND 123W.

ISOLATED STRONG CLUSTER NEAR COAST AT 6.5N 77.8W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ALONG THE COAST FROM 12N90W TO 13N92W AND FROM 15N96W 
TO 20N108W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG UPPER TROUGH ALONG 120W TONIGHT CONTINUES TO DIG SE 
ACCORDING TO LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. JET STREAM AHEAD OF 
TROUGH MOVING NE OVER NRN BAJA. TROUGH HAS EFFECTIVELY CUT IN 
TWO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE AREA. ONE CELL OF HIGH 
PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE OTHER W OF 
140W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A TRPL DISTURBANCE NEAR 15N109W IS 
SLOWLY DEVELOPING AND COULD BE A DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HR. THE PACIFIC RIDGE EXTENDS SE OVER THE REGION TO 15N115W WITH 
NE TRADES W OF 130W TO 20 KT. A COLD FRONT JUST N OF THE REGION 
IS MOVING S AND WILL INCREASE NLY WINDS OVER THE REGION N OF 28N 
E OF 130W TO 20 KT LATER THIS MORNING WITH NLY SWELL TO 8 FT. 
GAP WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT BUT CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 20 
KT ARE EVIDENT S OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 130W ACCORDING TO SSMI 
AND QUIKSCAT.

LATER DAY 1 MAIN ENERGY WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER WRN 
CONUS WITH SRN END OF TROUGH LAGGING BACK ALONG 30N118W TO 
20N130W. WRN MID LEVEL RIDGE POISED TO BUILD NE BEHIND TROUGH AS 
IT MOVES EWD. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 MUST PAY ATTENTION TO 
POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR 15N120W. OTHERWISE WEAK HIGH 
PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N AND W OF BAJA. WINDS ALONG THE 
BAJA COAST NLY 15 TO 20 KT WITH NLY SWELL. GFS MODEL SHOWS 
INCREASE OF SE WINDS ALONG MEXICAN COAST TO 20 KT COULD BE A 
LITTLE OVERDONE. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY 
WINDS TO 20 KT BETWEEN 105W AND 130W WITH SLY SWELL TO 8 FT.

FOR DAY 2 MAIN ENERGY IN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS REPIDLY EWD INTO 
CENTRAL CONUS LEAVING BEHIND TAIL END OF TROUGH BACK ALONG 
30N120W TO 20N128W. WHILE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE BETWEEN 120W 
AND 135W MID LEVEL RIDGE FAILS TO BUILD IN BEHIND TROUGH AS 
PREDICTED DUE TO SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR ALOFT FURTHER N ALONG 
130W. MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER GULF OF MEXICO STATIONARY AND 
SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN 24 HR AGO WILL BLOCK MOVEMENT OF CUTOFF 
SEGMENT OF TROUGH. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 WHILE TRPL DISTURBANCE 
MOVES SLOWLY WWD..SYSTEM COULD BECOME STRONGER. PACIFIC RIDGE 
CENTER 1022 MB NEAR 31N132W WILL PRODUCE LARGE AREA OF NE WINDS 
OF 20 KT BETWEEN DISTURBANCE AND HIGH CENTER SW OF BAJA COAST. 
NE TRADES W OF 130W WEAKEN SOME TO 15 KT. SOME POSSIBLE INCREASE 
IN GAP WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE 
GULF FROM A RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS 
STRONGEST S OF 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 135W ENHANCED BY POSSIBLE 
TRPL DEVELOPMENT MENTIONED ABOVE. 

$$
RRG