000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290336
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

1007 MB LOW LOCATED ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N109W MOVING 
W AT 10 KT. THE LOW IS BEING AFFECTED BY DEEP EASTERLY SHEAR WHICH 
HAS CAUSED MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO BE DISPLACED WEST OF THE 
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-16N
BETWEEN 108W-111W. SHEARING EFFECTS SHOULD RELAX A BIT... ALLOWING 
THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND POSSIBLY DEVELOP 
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 119W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT. CONVECTION LIES 
ALONG THE ITCZ IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N85W 13N100W 11N130W 12N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
101W AND 122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S/CENTRAL MEXICO WSW TO 18N110W 
THEN W TO 18N140W. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG
EASTERLY SHEAR S OF 15N. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE IS BETWEEN 90W-110W 
DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF T.D. LORENZO AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 
NEAR 15N109W. AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDS FROM PUERTO 
VALLARTA SW TO 17N110W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE AXIS. A 
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INLAND OVER THE W COAST OF THE U.S. 
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 125W. 
WESTERLY FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED S OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH A 70-90 KT 
JET FROM 28N140W TO 30N123W TO NRN MEXICO. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE 
SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 17N...EVIDENCED BY STABLE LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS.
THE ITCZ IS VERY ACTIVE PROBABLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WHERE 
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACCELERATE S OF 10N TO THE EQUATOR.

$$
MUNDELL