000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281119
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI SEP 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W FROM 5N TO 17N MOVING W 10 KT. A 1008 
MB LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N106W. CONVECTION 
INCREASING AND BEGINNING TO FORM BANDS ABOUT A CENTER.  


TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 115W FROM 5N TO 17N MOVING W 10 KT. A WEAK 
LOW HAS DISSIPATED. STRONG CONVECTION ON EITHER SIDE OF WAVE 
AXIS BUT MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH ITCZ WITH NO ORGANIZATION. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N78W 8N89W 14N104W 11N122W 11N135W 
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE 
FROM 7N78W TO 8N84W TO 9N94W TO 10N101W. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N105W TO 
12N124W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF 12N135W. 

NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 14.6N106.8W 
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL LOW CENTER.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 125W MOVING E AND BRUSHING NRN 
PORTION OF AREA BETWEEN 115W AND 135W. FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM 
MEXICO WSW TO 16N140W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT PACIFIC RIDGE NW 
OF AREA WITH AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 20N110W. RIDGE SUPPORTS NE AND 
E TRADES TO 20 KT BETWEEN 13N AND 24N W OF 128W. WINDS ALONG THE 
BAJA COAST NWLY 10 TO 15 KT ACCORDING TO SSMI AND QUIKSCAT. GAP 
WINDS LIGHT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 20 KT W OF 100W WITH 
SLY SWELL TO 8 FT.

LATER DAY 1 CONTINUATION OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS BETWEEN 110W 
AND 135W AS ADDITIONAL COLD AIR SPILLS S IN THE STRONG TROUGH. 
CENTER OF MID LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN 110W AND 130W WEAKENING AS 
TROUGH DIGS SWD. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 PACIFIC RIDGE 
CHANGES LITTLE WITH NO CHANGE TO TRADES. POSSIBLY SOME INCREASE 
IN NWLY SWELL WITH PERSISTENT NWLY WINDS TO 20 KT N OF 30N 
BETWEEN 120W AND 134W. OTHERWISE WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST 
REMAIN LIGHT NWLY. GAP WINDS ALSO LIGHT. NEED TO WATCH FOR 
POSSIBLE TRPL DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW CENTER NEAR 14N106W MOVING W 
10 KT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 20 KT S OF 10N BETWEEN 100W 
AND 125W. 

FOR DAY 2 MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL AS NEW SURGE OF 
COLD AIR ALOFT SPILLS INTO UPPER TROUGH ALONG 120W. GFS MODEL 
SHOWS THIS SURGE SPLITTING THE RIDGE ALONG 120W WITH ONE CENTER 
RECEDING E TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND THE OTHER W OF 135W. ON 
THE SURFACE DAY 2 PACIFIC RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS TO NEAR 33N137W AT 
1025 MB WITH SOME INCREASE IN NLY WINDS E OF 120W AND ALONG THE 
BAJA COAST TO 20 KT. POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT WITH DISTURBANCE 
ACCORDING TO GFS MODEL AS IT MOVES WWD TO NEAR 14N113W. SOME 
INCREASE IN SE WINDS ALONG MEXICAN COAST 15 TO 20 KT. CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS STRENGTHEN SOME 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 105W 
AND 120W IF MODEL CORRECT WITH DEVELOPING TRPL SYSTEM.  

$$
RRG