000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272240
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU SEP 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104W FROM 5N TO 17N MOVING W 10 KT. A 1010 MB 
LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N. DEEP EASTERLY SHEAR IS 
DISPLACING MOST OF THE CONVECTION W OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 103W-107W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W FROM 5N TO 17N MOVING W 10 KT. A WEAK 1010 
MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. 
DEEP EASTERLY SHEAR IS DISPLACING MOST OF THE CONVECTION W OF THE 
WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 112W-116W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N83W 13N101W 10N122W 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 96W AND 
103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 103W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH TWO 
APPARENT CENTERS NEAR 22N96W AND 17N102W. THIS RIDGE...COUPLED WITH 
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 25N...IS PRODUCING DEEP EASTERLY SHEAR OVER 
THE FAR ERN PACIFIC WATERS. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM 
T.S. LORENZO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND BEING 
ADVECTED WESTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS E OF 110W. THE EASTERLY 
SHEAR IS PUSHING MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF ORIGIN POINT.

W OF 110W...
AN EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM MEXICO SW TO 
14N140W WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE PRIMARILY FROM 15N-24N. THE 
ITCZ REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH ENHANCED AREAS OF CONVECTION E OF 
130W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG 136W S OF 18N MOVING W 
10-15 KT...BUT A LACK OF MOISTURE HAS SUPPRESSED SHOWER ACTIVITY. A 
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WITH 
A TROUGH EXTENDING SW...PUTTING THE N PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N 
OF 23N UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. A 100 KT JET EXTENDS FROM 28N140W TO 
30N126W...THEN WEAKENS AS IT CONTINUES NE INTO THE SW UNITED STATES.

$$
MUNDELL