000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262137
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED SEP 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W N OF 6N...JUST W OF GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...MOVING W 10 KT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES APPEARS TO 
BE FORMING JUST TO THE W OF THE CURRENT ANALYZED PSN. SOME 
READJUSTMENT MAY BE DONE AT 00Z. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE TO THE W FROM 12N-16N 
BETWEEN 99W-103W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 110W FROM 6N TO 16N MOVING W 10 KT. A 
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES...1010 MB...IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. 
THIS WEAK LOW IS GENERALLY JUST AN ELONGATED SWIRL OF LOW 
CLOUDS...THOUGH THERE IS A FEW SMALL POCKETS OF MODERATE 
CONVECTION ON THE EDGE OF ITS CIRCULATION WITHIN 180 NM FROM 
10N-13N.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N85W 12N105W 11N120W 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
118W AND 123W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 90W AND 108W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER FLOW IS FAIRLY SWIFT AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE W TO SW 
ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL EPAC THIS EVENING. THIS IS DUE TO A 
SERIES OF UPPER FEATURES. THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS CONSIST OF A PAIR 
OF UPPER LOWS LOCATED OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST AND AND N 
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. UPPER RIDGING LOCATED TO THE S AND E OF 
THE AREA IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWS A PLUME 
OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS N OF 25N W OF 122W...BUT NOT MUCH ELSE IN 
THE REGION. IN THE TROPICS...STRETCHED OUT UPPER RIDGING IS THE 
GENERAL THEME. THE MAIN ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL 
MEXICO. NE TO ELY FLOW ON ITS S SIDE IS PRODUCING MODERATE SHEAR 
OVER THE TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED ABOVE. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS 
SPINNING NEAR 19N113W INTERRUPTING THE RIDGING A BIT...BUT NOT 
PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. 

IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A WELL ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS 
PARKED WELL NW OF THE AREA WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED HIGH CENTERS. 
THIS RIDGE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADES W OF 120W. 
THESE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. VISIBLE IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS ALSO 
SHOW SOME ACCELERATED N-NW WINDS OFF THE BAJA COAST.

$$
CANGIALOSI