000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261556
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED SEP 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W N OF 6N JUST W OF GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
MOVING W 10 KT HAS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AS AIR MASS 
DRIED UNDER STRONG NE WINDS ALOFT CURTAILING ITS DEVELOPMENT. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 109W FROM 7N TO 16N MOVING W 10 KT HAS 1009 
MB LOW PRES EMBEDDED NEAR 12N.  ADVERSE STRONG E-NE WINDS ALOFT 
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.  THIS LIKELY 
TO INCREASE CONVECTION WHICH SO FAR HAS BEEN CONFINED TO ITCZ.  

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG...9N85W 14N100W 12N109W 11N120W 11N130W 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS 88W-90W. 

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 36N128W 
10N140W WITH VERY DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS NW OF AXIS EFFECTIVELY 
CURTAILING ANY DEEP CONVECTION W OF 130W.

REMAINING E PAC W OF 90W UNDER UMBRELLA OF LARGE ANTICYCLONIC 
RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 17N100W.  WEAK CYCLONIC VORTEX DENTS SW PART 
OF RIDGE BUT HAS LITTLE EFFECT EXCEPT DECREASE STRONG E-NE WINDS 
ALOFT WHICH CURTAIL MOST SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ. 

WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAPPED BETWEEN RIDGE AND SECOND 
ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  CONVERGING WINDS ALOFT OVER 
SWRN CARIBBEAN BASIN STRETCH INTO E PAC S OF COSTA RICA WITH 
LITTLE CONVECTION ENTERING EXTREME ERN ITCZ.  

AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER 1029 MB WELL NW OF E 
PAC INCREASING N FLOW ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND NE TRADES 
N OF 15N W OF 120W.  

MODERATE SWELL TRAINS CROSS ENCROACH INTO E PAC ACROSS EQUATOR 
S OF 10N FROM 80W TO 120W.  

$$
WALLY BARNES