000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED SEP 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W N OF 7N INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
MOVING W 10 TO 12 KT. A SMALL PATCH OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS INDICATED ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AXIS 
AND THE ITCZ. ADDITIONAL TRAILING CONVECTION IS INDICATED OVER 
GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS RELOCATED ALONG 107W FROM 7N TO 16N MOVING W 10 
KT. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO INTERSECTION 
OF THE LOW AND THE ITCZ WITH SOME TURNING NOTED IN THE MID LEVEL 
CLOUD DEBRIS. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS 9N84W 14N105W 11N117W 12N130W 
10N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 100W AND 122W...AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W 
AND 95W. 

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 100W...
A SHEARED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW CONUS 
THROUGH 28N120W 19N130W TO 15N140W AND WAS MARKED BY STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 120-180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. AXIS OF
SUBTROPICAL A JET EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AT 
20N126W TO NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 30N114W INTO NW MEXICO
AND THE SRN GREAT PLAINS OF THE U.S. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS 
WERE 55-70 KT OVER THE PACIFIC AND INCREASED TO 80-100 KT OVER 
THE SRN CONUS IN AN AREA OF GENERAL CONFLUENT FLOW. AN EXPANSIVE 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 
25N102W. ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC BETWEEN THE JET AXIS NOTED ABOVE AND EWD BEYOND 100W. A 
SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS UNDERCUTTING THE HIGH NEAR 
18N111W AND WAS MOVING WWD 10 KT. 

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS 
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN EXTENDS FROM 15N TO 22N ALONG 
137W. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
WITHIN 24 HOURS.  

E OF 100W...
MID/UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE 
PERIPHERY OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO DOMINATED
THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 100W. THIS FLOW WAS ADVECTING 
CLOUD DEBRIS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA SWWD OVER THE PACIFIC. 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS WERE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE. 

$$
COBB