000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250309
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE SEP 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W N OF 6N MOVING W 10-15 KT S OF EL 
SALVADOR.  ALTHOUGH AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST...CONVECTION SEVERELY 
CURTAILED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL NELY WINDS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE 
FOR NEXT 48 HRS.  NO CYCLONIC ORGANIZATION EXPECTED FROM SYSTEM. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE 
WAVE AXIS AND INLAND OVER EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS FROM 11N TO 
15N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W.  

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W FROM 4N TO 16N MOVING W 10 KT.  A 1009 
MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N108W.  UPPER 
CONDITIONS ARE PRESENTLY FAVORABLE BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME 
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE AS WAVE MOVES W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 107W 
AND 109W. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N78W 10N85W 13N95W 11N100W 12N125W 
10N135W 11N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 6N TO 9 N 
BETWEEN 82W AND 85W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 137W.  

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGS S ALONG 133W FROM CYCLONIC 
VORTEX AT 30N135W WITH STRONG SUBSIDING DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 240 
NM OF ITS AXIS.  TROUGH EXPECTED TO SWING NE AS LARGE WELL 
ANCHORED ANTICYCLONE AT 20N112W BLOCKS ANY FURTHER SEWD DRIFT.  
JET CORE OVER 50 KT HEADS NE TRAPPED BETWEEN BOTH CENTERS 
CAUSING STRONG SW WIND SHEAR OVER FORMER T.D. 13-E KEEPING IT 
DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.  JET ALSO ADVECTING 
LARGE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ITCZ NE ACROSS NW MEXICO 
INTO SW CONUS.  

UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED S OF CABO SAN LUCAS NEAR 20N112W IS 
ADVECTING NE FLOW TO 15N110W E OF THE AXIS BRINGING IN DRY AIR 
AND INHIBITING CONVECTION ALONG TROPICAL WAVE AT 108W.

ANTICYCLONIC CENTER OVER YUCATAN FLOWS STRONG MOIST NE WINDS 
ALOFT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO E PAC BUT LITTLE CONVECTION 
HAS DEVELOPED EXCEPT SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT 
PATTERN EXIST.     

QUASI-STATIONARY 1009 MB LOW S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC  NEAR 
13N95W MOVING SW AT 15 KT. 

REMNANT 1012 MB LOW OF FORMER IVO AT 22N110W...OR ABOUT 60 NM S 
OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MOVING E 5 KT.  LOW PRES DEVOID OF ANY 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HRS.

REMNANT LOW PRES OF T.D. THIRTEEN-E STILL MEANDERING NEAR 
18N130W WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE 
WITHIN 48 HOURS.  

HIGH PRES 1030 MB WELL N OF AREA FORCING TRADES ALONG CALIFORNIA 
COAST WITH MODERATE SWELLS ENCROACHING FROM 22N TO 31N E OF 
117W.  LARGER CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS AFFECT SEAS S OF 10N W OF 
80W.  

$$
FORMOSA