000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON SEP 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W N OF 6N MOVING W 10-15 KT JUST S OF EL 
SALVADOR.  ALTHOUGH AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST...CONVECTION SEVERELY 
CURTAILED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL NELY WINDS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE 
FOR NEXT 48 HRS.  NO CYCLONIC ORGANIZATION EXPECTED FROM SYSTEM. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE 
WAVE AXIS AND INLAND OVER NICARAGUA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 85W 
AND 87W.  

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W FROM 4N TO 16N MOVING W 10 KT.  UPPER 
CONDITIONS ARE PRESENTLY FAVORABLE BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME 
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE AS WAVE MOVES W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 104W AND 111W. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N78W 10N85W 13N95W 11N100W 12N125W 
10N135W 11N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 5N TO 10 N BETWEEN 
79W AND 84W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 
96W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 140W. 

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGS S ALONG 133W FROM CYCLONIC 
VORTEX AT 30N135W WITH STRONG SUBSIDING DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 240 
NM OF ITS AXIS.  TROUGH EXPECTED TO SWING NE AS LARGE WELL 
ANCHORED ANTICYCLONE AT 20N112W BLOCKS ANY FURTHER SEWD DRIFT.  
JET CORE OVER 50 KT HEADS NE TRAPPED BETWEEN BOTH CENTERS 
CAUSING STRONG SW WIND SHEAR OVER FORMER T.D. 13-E KEEPING IT 
DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.  JET ALSO ADVECTING 
LARGE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ITCZ NE ACROSS NW MEXICO 
INTO SW CONUS.  

UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED S OF CABO SAN LUCAS NEAR 20N112W IS 
ADVECTING NE FLOW TO 15N110W E OF THE AXIS BRINGING IN DRY AIR 
AND INHIBITING CONVECTION ALONG TROPICAL WAVE AT 108W.

ANTICYCLONIC CENTER OVER YUCATAN FLOWS STRONG MOIST NE WINDS 
ALOFT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO E PAC BUT LITTLE CONVECTION 
HAS DEVELOPED EXCEPT SCATTERED TSTMS IN GULF OF PANAMA WHERE 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN EXIST.     

WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY 1011 MB LOW S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC  
NEAR 14N95W MOVING SW AT 15 KT. 

REMNANT 1012 MB LOW OF FORMER IVO AT 22N110W...OR ABOUT 60 NM S 
OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MOVING E 5 KT.  LOW PRES DEVOID OF ANY 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HRS.

REMNANT LOW PRES OF T.D. THIRTEEN-E STILL MEANDERING NEAR 
18N130W WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE 
WITHIN 48 HOURS.  

HIGH PRES 1029 MB WELL N OF AREA FORCING TRADES ALONG CALIFORNIA 
COAST WITH MODERATE SWELLS ENCROACHING FROM 22N TO 31N E OF 
117W.  LARGER CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS AFFECT SEAS S OF 10N W OF 
80W.  

$$