000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241613
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON SEP 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W N OF 6N MOVING W 10-15 KT JUST S OF EL 
SALVADOR.  ALTHOUGH AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST...CONVECTION SEVERELY 
CURTAILED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL NELY WINDS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE 
FOR NEXT 48 HRS.  NO CYCLONIC ORGANIZATION EXPECTED FROM SYSTEM. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 4N TO 16N MOVING W 10 KT IS 
TRAPPED BETWEEN TWO DRY AIR MASSES LEAVING MOISTURE AVAILABLE 
FOR CONVECTION ONLY ALONG ITCZ.  OTHERWISE UPPER CONDITIONS ARE 
NOT PRESENTLY UNFAVORABLE BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME 
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE AS WAVE MOVES W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS ALONG ITCZ. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N78W 10N87W 14N92W 11N107W 12N124W 11N140W. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM S OF 
AXIS FROM COLOMBIAN COAST TO 80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 96W TO 98W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 105W TO 111W.  NUMEROUS 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 
119W TO 125W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF 
AXIS W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGS S ALONG 135W FROM CYCLONIC 
VORTEX AT 32N136W WITH STRONG SUBSIDING DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 240 
NM OF ITS AXIS.  TROUGH EXPECTED TO SWING NE AS LARGE WELL 
ANCHORED ANTICYCLONE AT 20N112W BLOCKS ANY FURTHER SEWD DRIFT.  
JET CORE OVER 50 KT HEADS NE TRAPPED BETWEEN BOTH CENTERS 
CAUSING STRONG SW WIND SHEAR OVER FORMER T.D. 13-E KEEPING IT 
DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.  JET ALSO ADVECTING 
LARGE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ITCZ NE ACROSS NW MEXICO 
INTO SW CONUS.  

NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SW FROM SE TEXAS TO 15N104W 
BRINGING SOME DRY AIR MASS ALONG ITS AXIS INTO THAT CORNER OF E 
PAC AND INHIBITING CONVECTION ALONG TROPICAL WAVE NOW AT 107W.

ANTICYCLONIC CENTER OVER YUCATAN FLOWS STRONG MOIST NE WINDS 
ALOFT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO E PAC BUT LITTLE CONVECTION 
HAS DEVELOPED EXCEPT SCATTERED TSTMS IN GULF OF PANAMA WHERE 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN EXIST.     

WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY 1011 MB LOW PRES SW OF GUATEMALA COAST 
NEAR 13N94W EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HRS. 

REMNANT LOW PRES OF FORMER IVO AT 22N110W...OR ABOUT 45 NM S OF 
CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...WITH CENTRAL PRES 1010 MB.  LOW PRES 
DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE 
WITHIN 24 HRS.

REMNANT LOW PRES OF T.D. THIRTEEN-E STILL MEANDER NEAR 17N128W 
WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 48 
HOURS.  

HIGH PRES 1029 MB WELL N OF AREA FORCING TRADES ALONG CALIFORNIA 
COAST WITH MODERATE SWELLS ENCROACHING FROM 22N TO 31N E OF 
117W.  LARGER CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS AFFECT SEAS S OF 10N W OF 
80W.  

$$
WALLY BARNES