000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230950
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO CENTERED NEAR 22.3N 111.3W...OR 80 NM WSW OF 
CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AT 23/0900 UTC MOVING ENE AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NEARLY ALL CONVECTION
HAS DISSIPATED NEAR THE CENTER OF IVO AND ITS LOW LEVEL FEATURES ARE 
BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0200 
UTC OVER THE DEPRESSION SHOWED ONLY A FEW WIND BARBS AT 25 TO 30 KT. 
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W FROM 5N TO 16N MOVING W 10 KT. CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS MAINLY LOCATED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W N OF 5N MOVING W 15 KT WITH WEAK CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N83W 9N95W 11N104W 10N115W 15N125W 
12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 85W 
AND 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 123W 
AND 128W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF 
AXIS W OF 103W.

...DISCUSSION...

TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS COMING TO A 
SCREECHING HALT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO IS BARELY HANGING ON 
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AND THE REMNANTS OF T.D. 13-E 
ARE SLOWLY UNRAVELING WITHOUT PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE 
CENTER TO SUPPORT HIGHER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SPIRAL CLOUD LINES.
A REVIEW OF THE VARIOUS GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS SHOWS VERY LITTLE 
CHANGE CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. IN GENERAL...WINDS 
AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE MID PACIFIC RIDGE AND THE ITCZ SLOWLY RELAXES THROUGH TUE. 

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSING 
WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS 
RIDGE IS BEING REFLECTED BY INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM 
ACTIVITY IN THE PACIFIC BETWEEN 85W AND 95W. THE EFFICIENT MOISTURE 
CHANNEL EXTENDING FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA ACROSS NW MEXICO INTO NEW 
MEXICO REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT IS STARTING TO WEAKEN. AN UPPER LOW 
PREVIOUSLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST HAS MOVED INLAND BUT
AN UPPER TROUGH TIED TO THIS LOW CONTINUES ACROSS A LARGE SWATCH
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 29N115W TO 14N140W.

$$
MUNDELL+