000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230324 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM IVO CENTERED NEAR 22.1N 111.8W...OR 110 NM WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AT 23/0300 UTC MOVING NE AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ALMOST ALL DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED NEAR THE CENTER OF IVO DUE TO THE EXISTENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NW. SEVERAL EARLIER MICROWAVE PASSES SHOWED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WELL-REMOVED FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 240 NM N QUADRANT WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS ALREADY AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W N OF 6N MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE IS ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION LOCATED E OF THE WAVE AXIS DUE TO WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 98W-103W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N77W 7N83W 11N104W 14N116W 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 83W-87W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 98W-107W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 115W-124W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS W OF 130W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 110W... SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY LIES ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS E OF 110W DUE TO DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE BEING IN PLACE AND A FEW AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE ITCZ AXIS HAS BEEN LIFTED N FROM THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA COAST NW TO ABOUT 13N LARGELY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD MID/UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE ITCZ IS DISPLACED ABOUT 250-300 NM N OF THE AXIS OF STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE SO MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS FOUND E OF 87W WHERE THE TWO AXIS CONVERGE...AND W OF 98W NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W. DIURNAL TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS PUSHED THESE STORMS SW TO THE PACIFIC COAST WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WITHIN 45 NM OFFSHORE BETWEEN COSTA RICA AND GUATEMALA. W OF 110W... MOST NOTABLE FEATURE AT THIS TIME IS THE ENORMOUS MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE SIERRA NEVADAS WHICH IS SOMEWHAT CUT-OFF FROM THE PREVAILING MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STRETCHES WELL S INTO THE AREA FROM 30N120W SW TO 14N135W WITH A LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE NW PART OF THE REGION. THE REMNANT LOW OF T.D. THIRTEEN-E IS STILL LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF 17N128W WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009 MB...BUT IT IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FROM THE TROUGH AND SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 121W-127W. $$ BERG