000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT SEP 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM IVO AT 22/0900 UTC NEAR 20.9N 112.9W...OR ABOUT 180 
NM SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 5 
KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND OVERALL ORGANIZATION DECREASED 
SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN 0100 AND 0800 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W N OF 7N MOVING W 10 KT. CLUSTERS OF DEEP
CONVECTION ARE EVIDENT NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 97W AND 100W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 12N94W 12N115W 14N122W 12N132W 
13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS E OF 
95W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FEATURES ARE TROPICAL STORM IVO NEAR 21N113W...A DEEP LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF AREA NEAR 32N122W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO 
19N135W...REMNANT LOW NEAR 17N130W...UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE 
GULF OF MEXICO TO 18N102W...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO AROUND 10N90W. TROPICAL STORM 
IVO LOST ALL OF ITS CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE REMNANT LOW 
OF TD 13-E IS STILL STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. 
THE DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION 
NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE PLUME OF 
TROPICAL MOISTURE FUNNELING NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA AND NW MEXICO INTO 
NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS MOISTURE PLUME IS LIKELY 
TO STAY PUT A WHILE LONGER BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS. THE UPPER 
RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IS PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP E OF 100W. BUT LACKING TROPICAL WAVES 
OR A PRE-EXISTING CIRCULATION IN THAT PART OF THE BASIN...TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SURFACE WINDS
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE EBBED AND BECOME LESS NORTHERLY. AS A 
RESULT WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE NO LONGER A CONCERN.

$$
MUNDELL