000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220341
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT SEP 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO AT 22/0300 UTC IS NEAR 20.4N 
113.1W OR 220 NM SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. IVO IS 
MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 5 KT.  THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.  THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB.  PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.  GOOD UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OUTFLOW IS 
NOTED OVER IVO.  CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.   
SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 111W AND 114W.  
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 KT. 
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.  CLUSTERS OF 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 
96W AND 100W.  

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N77W 12N90W 12N100W 15N106W 12N120W 
14N130W 14N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 6N 
TO 11N BETWEEN 78W AND 86W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE 
COASTS OF NICARAGUA...EL SALVADOR...AND GUATEMALA FROM 11N TO 
15N BETWEEN 84W AND 91W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 101W AND 106W...AND FROM 
10N TO 13N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W.    

...DISCUSSION...
ITCZ CONVECTION HAS INCREASED E OF 100W AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILT 
W OF 92W INTERACTED WITH THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN 
GULF AND PROVIDED AN EFFICIENT OUTFLOW CHANNEL FOR THUNDERSTORM 
ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.  FURTHER NORTH ANOTHER DEEP 
TROUGH W OF S CALIFORNIA IS FUNNELING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS 
BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO AZ NM AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  BETWEEN 
THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS A HIGH AMPLITUDE N-S ORIENTED RIDGE IS 
PARKED ALONG 110W-120W.  THE LARGE CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE 
CALIFORNIA COAST HAS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING N OF 20N 
BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 135W.  A SURFACE LOW IS SW OF LOS 
ANGELES NEAR 33N121W WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 27N126W.  
THE LOW HAS DRAGGED A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR SWD W OF 115W INTO 
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF T.D. 13-E. THE REMNANT LOW IS NEARLY 
STATIONARY NEAR 17N130W WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB.  
OCCASIONAL FLAREUPS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER FROM 15N TO 
17N BETWEEN 130W AND 133W AS THE SYSTEM STRUGGLES TO SURVIVE IN 
AN ENVIRONMENT HOSTILE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES TO REGENERATE.

$$
FORMOSA