000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210318 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI SEP 21 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE IVO CENTERED NEAR 18.8N 113.4W...OR 315 SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AT 21/0300 UTC MOVING N AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IVO PRODUCED A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING AROUND 2300 UTC WITH THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY OVERSPREADING THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. A TRMM AND SSM/I MICROWAVE PASS NEAR 0000 UTC BOTH STILL SHOWED AN EYE FEATURE WITH DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE CENTER...AND ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION ABOUT A DEGREE AND A HALF FARTHER N. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 111W-114W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W N OF 7N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A WEAK 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N93W. DEEP CONVECTION IS RATHER MEAGER AT THE MOMENT...AND ALL SURROUNDING CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N77W 12N92W 10N104W 15N128W 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 84W-87W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 90W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 124W-129W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 110W... THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS ORIENTED IN A NE/SW FASHION TODAY DUE TO A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE IS OVER S TEXAS WITH THE AXIS STRETCHING SW TO JUST E OF HURRICANE IVO. AN UPPER LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N100W. BECAUSE OF THIS LOW AND A MUCH LARGER DEEP LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE UPPER FLOW OFF THE MEXICO/CENTRAL AMERICA COAST IS PRIMARILY WESTERLY WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED NE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN ADDITION...THE ITCZ HAS BEEN PULLED RATHER FAR TO THE N...UP TO ABOUT 11N...DUE TO THE GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. W OF 110W... A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING N OF 20N BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 140W. A SURFACE LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SW OF LOS ANGELES NEAR 32N122W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 30N125W 30N129W. THE UPPER LOW HAS DRAGGED A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR SWD W OF 125W...ADDING TO THE STABILITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS. INCIDENTALLY...THE STABLE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD OVER THE N PART OF THE AREA IS BEING INGESTED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE REMNANT OF T.D. THIRTEEN-E. THE REMNANT LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 18N131W WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB AND IT HAS RECENTLY PRODUCED A NEW BURST OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 129W-132W. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIES ALONG 18N W OF 120W WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 113W/114W JUST TO THE W OF HURRICANE IVO. $$ BERG