000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170917
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON SEP 17 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W N OF 8N MOVING W 5 TO 10 KT. A 1010 MB 
LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO 
SHOW CLOUDS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY INTO THE LOW CENTER. WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM W 
OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AS IT MOVES IN A WNW DIRECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 114W FROM 8N TO 19N IS MOVING SLOWLY 
WESTWARD. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N. THE 
LOW IS RATHER SMALL...AND VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE 
TIME BEING. ONLY ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W-NW 
OF THE LOW...AND ALONG THE WAVE AXIS S OF 13N. THIS SYSTEM 
CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED BY ELY SHEAR.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG THE LINE
...6N77W 11N105W 11N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 
NM OF THE POINT 10.8N107.3W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINTS 12.1N121.7W AND 13N124.7W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 
14.3N121W.

OTHER SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE FOLLOWING POINTS 
12.5N89.5W AND 12.5N103W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...
WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N138W AND IS DRIFTING 
WEST. NO WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

REMAINDER OF THE UPPER LEVELS IS COVERED BY A VERY FLAT 
ANTICYCLONIC PATTERN. 

THE AREA FROM THE ITCZ TO 20N EAST OF 135W IS MOIST IN THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH A DIFLUENT FLOW PATTERN IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS WITH AREAS OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND AREAS OF 
EMBEDDED CONVECTION.  THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD 
FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

SURFACE...
BESIDES THE AREA OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS MENTIONED ABOVE THE AREA 
WEST OF 118W IS COVERED BY LOWER LEVEL BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.  MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF A LINE 
FROM THE SOUTH TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 15N140W.  THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD TROUGH WITH THE 
ABOVE MENTIONED LOWS ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVES.

$$
LL