000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170341 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON SEP 17 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W N OF 8N MOVING W 5-10 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOUDS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY INTO THE LOW CENTER...BUT MAY MORE AT THE MID-LEVELS. HOWEVER...DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AS IT TRACKS IN A WNW DIRECTION. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 113W FROM 8N-19N IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N. THE LOW IS RATHER SMALL...AND VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE TIME BEING. ONLY ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W-NW OF THE LOW...AND ALONG THE WAVE AXIS S OF 13N. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED BY ELY SHEAR WHICH IS NOT ALLOWING CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM ON OR NEAR TO BE PERSISTENT. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG...9N85W 11N100W 14N112W 14N122W 12N130W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 87W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 124W...AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 107W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 115W... WEAK ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS PROVIDING MODERATE NE SHEARING OVER THE WATERS S OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SMALL ANTICYCLONE IS TO THE S OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 13N96W. WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THESE TWO FEATURES... DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS BEING NOTED S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 13N AND E OF THE WAVE ALONG 99W. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND WAVE ALONG 100W MENTIONED ABOVE TO CONTINUE TO FLARE UP. MODERATE TO STRONG SHEARING IS EVIDENT BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG NE SHEAR IS EVIDENT S OF 7N E OF 94W. THIS AS STATED ABOVE UNDER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W IS KEEPING CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ TO A MINIMUM. A WEAK PRES PATTERN PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. W OF 115W... BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 23N117W IS CONTINUING THE MODERATE TO STRONG ELY SHEAR ACROSS THE ITCZ. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE TO 16N140W...AND SW TO OUTSIDE THE REGION AT 15N144W. UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS AIDING CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W-130W. A WEAK AND ELONGATED 1010 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 13N127W. A TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW THROUGH 16N125W TO 19N123W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN A NW DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AND REMAIN RATHER WEAK. FRESH NELY WINDS ARE EVIDENT N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND STRONG HIGH WELL TO THE N. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N134W...AND REACHES TO 24N1178. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 118W. SCATTERED PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NW OF LINE 14N140W 21N128W TO 32N120W. $$ AGUIRRE