000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160907 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN SEP 16 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W N OF 7N MOVING W 5-10 KT. SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 11N96W WITH SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPING W OF THE AXIS DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A LINEAR ITCZ AXIS WITH NO INDICATION OF A SURFACE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 96W-103W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W/111W S OF 18N MOVING W 5 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 13N111W MOVING NW NEAR 5 KT. QUIKSCAT AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS TO THE W DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 111W-115W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N77W 9N90W 13N111W 17N121W 12N130W 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 80W-96W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 96W-108W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 115W-131W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 110W... STRONG RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND TEXAS AND CONTINUES TO DRIVE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS E OF 110W. THE FLOW IS MAINLY EASTERLY OVER MEXICO AS WELL...BUT WINDS HAVE STARTED TO BACK OUT OF THE NE DUE TO AN UPPER LOW MOVING W OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE LIES WITHIN THE BELT BETWEEN 5N-18N AND SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE PROPAGATING WWD NEAR THE ITCZ AND A FEW TROPICAL WAVES. HOWEVER...WITH VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE S OF 15N...NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ABLE TO BECOME ORGANIZED. ELSEWHERE...A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO AND ARE DRIFTING W/SW TOWARDS THE COAST...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM ACAPULCO NW TO MAZATLAN. W OF 110W... STRONG HIGH PRES HAS DEVELOPED NW OF THE AREA WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN ADDITION...A 1009 MB LOW IS BECOMING MORE CONSOLIDATED NEAR 13N125W AND IS MOVING GENERALLY W 5-10 KT. AS A RESULT...THE TRADE WINDS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES FROM 16N-25N W OF 120W. THE LOW IS STILL A LITTLE ELONGATED ALONG A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 15N120W 11N130W AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE ITCZ...AND THE RESULTING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 125W-131W. OVER THE SUBTROPICS...AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 22N117W WITH DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING EXTENDING FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SW TO 21N140W. IN ADDITION...THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW OF CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME CUT-OFF WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW NEAR 29N138W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS IN CONTROL N OF 20N WITH ONLY A FEW STRATOCUMULUS WITHIN THE RIDGE. $$ BERG