000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160349
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN SEP 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W N OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A BROAD CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. ISOLATED CONVECTION 
BETWEEN 10N-14N ALONG WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W FROM 8N TO 18N MOVING W 10 KT. A WEAK 1008 
MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO 
AFFECT THE SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION DECREASING W OF THE LOW.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W 13N109W 13N127W 11N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E OF 105W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WITH AN ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED NEAR MAZATLAN. EAST-NORTHEAST UPPER FLOW S OF THE RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO 115W...WHICH IS SHEARING DEEP 
CONVECTION W OF SEVERAL WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS...LOCATED 
NEAR 12N110W...16N120W AND 12N126W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE SOURCE N OF 5N 
E OF112W EXTENDS INTO SRN MEXICO AND NRN CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 7N BETWEEN 90W-105W DECREASING IN DIURNAL 
MINIMUM. THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING W THROUGH THE AREA ARE NOT 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE COMING DAYS.

SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 30N IS STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 
INCREASING TRADE WINDS FROM 16N-25N. THE LOW NEAR 12N126W IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND FURTHER INCREASE THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT AND TRADE WINDS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW IS 
PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 
124W AND 131W. UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY AN EXTENSIVE RIDGE AXIS 
FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 12N140W.

$$
MUNDELL