000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152208 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT SEP 15 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W N OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 92W-95W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W FROM 8N TO 18N MOVING W 10 KT. A WEAK 1008 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED ABOUT 90 NM W OF LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 110W-112W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N83W 8N90W 13N108W 12N128W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 133W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 110W... MID LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WITH AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR MAZATLAN. EAST-NORTHEAST UPPER FLOW S OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO 110W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE SOURCE N OF 5N EXTENDS INTO SRN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 7N BETWEEN 90W-1058W. THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING W THROUGH THE AREA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE COMING DAYS. W OF 110W... BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 30N IS STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND TRADE WINDS FROM 16N-25N. QUIKSCAT SHOWS WEAKER SURFACE WINDS NEAR A DISSIPATING 1008 MB LOW NEAR 19N118W AND A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 13N124W. THE SECOND LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND LIKELY FURTHER INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE TRADE WINDS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 133W. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY AN EXTENSIVE RIDGE AXIS FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 12N140W. $$ MUNDELL