000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150334 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT SEP 15 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W N OF 6N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. A WEAK MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE S OF 12N. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE SE COAST OF GUATEMALA. UPPER DIFFLUENT IS W OF THE WAVE ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NEAR COSTA RICA AND NORTHERN PANAMA. NWP MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE LOW PRES DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IN ABOUT 24 HRS AND TRACKS GENERALLY WNW THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W FROM 4N-18N IS MOVING 10 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND LOW FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 104W-110W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE WITHIN 30 NM OF 11N110W. NWP MODELS TRACK THIS LOW WNW THROUGH THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH POSSIBLE INCREASE IN ITS ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 139W FROM 4N-16N IS MOVING W 10 KT. A WEAK 1009 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N...AND CONSISTS OF BROKEN LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM NW SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 10N85W 10N95W 12N105W 8N114W 11N125W 12N132W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 82W-90W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 109W-112W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 97W-102W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 125W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA NEAR 26N116W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 22N119W. ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 21N E OF 115W TO ACROSS BAJA AND NRN MEXICO. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N101W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 19N109W. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16.5N103W THROUGH 12N106W TO 10N106W. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL NE FLOW SPILLS SWD FROM THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO AND WRN CARIBBEAN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO S TO 10N W OF 96W WHERE IT BECOMES NE-E WESTWARD TO 125W. THIS FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT THROUGHOUT THE AREA N OF 4N. WEAK LOW PRES 1008 MB MOVING WNW 5-10 KT IS NEAR 18N116W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE LOW...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW THROUGH 17N120W TO 15N125W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS AS SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR IT TO DEVELOP. A WEAK PRES PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. W OF 125W... AN ELONGATED AREA OF MID AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 26.5N125W SW TO 18N140W. AN EMBEDDED ANTICYCLONES IS NEAR 18N138W. THE COMBINATION OF THE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE...AND BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING N OF THE REGION IS RESULTING IN MID/UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW NW OF THE RIDGE. A JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 28N140W AND EXTENDS NEWD TO N OF THE REGION AT 32N125W. A STRONG WIND MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET STREAM IS WELL W OF THE AREA NEAR 25N145W..AND SHOULD CLIP THE FAR NW CORNER DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING AMPLE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA GENERALLY SW OF LINE 25N140W 32N121W TO VICINITY OF THE ITCZ. LIMITED MOISTURE IS SEEN HERE. PATCHES OF MAINLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN NW OF LINE 24N140W TO 32N129W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1027 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED N OF THE AREA NEAR 37N143W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 27N122W. HIGH PRES IS PRESENT N OF 21N W OF 121W. $$ AGUIRRE