000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140913 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI SEP 14 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE RELOCATED TO THE W ALONG 87W/88W N OF 6N THROUGH HONDURAS...MOVING W 15-20 KT. SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS THE N PART OF THE WAVE AXIS APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...PUTTING THE AXIS S OF HONDURAS BY EXTRAPOLATION. INTENSE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE ITCZ...AS WELL AS A PATCH OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG SW OF EL SALVADOR FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 89W-94W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W S OF 17N MOVING W 5 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N BASED ON EARLIER QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT PASSES OVER THE SYSTEM. EASTERLY SHEAR HAS PUSHED MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION W OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 107W-113W. HOWEVER...OTHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY FORMED IN A NARROW STRIP NE OF THE LOW...MORE OR LESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ALTHOUGH THE LOW COULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 137W S OF 16N MOVING W 5 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N BASED ON ROTATION IN THE LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. BROKEN LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 134W-139W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N77W 8N90W 12N108W 12N125W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 79W-95W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 107W-113W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 110W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO LIE ACROSS MEXICO FROM 20N110W NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION INTO THE N/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...THE PREDOMINANT FLOW ACROSS SRN MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS IS OUT OF THE NE TO E. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MOVING SW ABOUT 10 KT. CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE LOOSELY ORGANIZED AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OFFSHORE. OTHER CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE ITCZ AND NEAR THE OTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE ISTHMUS OF TEHAUNTEPEC NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW...AS WELL AS W/CENTRAL MEXICO FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 100W-104W. FARTHER N...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH TEXAS INTO EXTREME N/CENTRAL MEXICO WITH RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDING OVER NW MEXICO. AS A RESULT...DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE AREA N OF 28N. W OF 110W... THE W PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY A RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 26N117W TO 20N140W. THE UPPER FLOW IS MAINLY EASTERLY TO THE S OF THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE DEEP TROPICS. A SMALL MID/UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 24N109W AND MOVING GENERALLY NW BUT IS NOT CAUSING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW...A 50 KT JET STREAK IS CENTERED ALONG 5N BETWEEN 105W-130W AND IS CAUSING A NET DIVERGENCE PATTERN OVER THE WAVE/LOW ALONG 107W. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS ALIGNED ALONG 130W AND SEPARATES MOIST AIR TO THE E WITH DRY AIR TO THE W. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW JUST S OF SOCORRO ISLAND NEAR 17N112W SW TO 14N125W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE TROUGH FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 116W-125W. FARTHER N...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH LIES N OF THE AREA WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET BARELY SCRAPING BY 30N140W WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO 70 KT. $$ BERG