000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140330 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI SEP 14 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W N OF 6N IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE WITHIN 30 NM OF 7.5N82W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THE WAVE ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN ISTHMUS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION E OF THE WAVE OVER PANAMA. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 4N-18N IS MOVING 10 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND LOW FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 104W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH THIS WAVE AND IS MOSTLY TIED TO THE ITCZ FROM 12N-13N BETWEEN 106W-110W. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW MAY DEVELOP SOME OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS IT TRACKS WNW. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 137W FROM 5N-16N IS MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED NEAR 11N137W. BROKEN LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 135W-138W. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...9N84W 13N100W 10N107W 16N115W 14N123W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 84W...AND 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 111W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 125W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA NEAR 26N116W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 22N119W. ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 21N E OF 115W TO ACROSS BAJA AND NRN MEXICO. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N101W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 19N109W. IN BETWEEN BOTH OF THESE FEATURES...A SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING NNE 15 KT IS OVER THE FAR SRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 23N104W. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC AND THE ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER WRN MEXICO. A MID/UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SW THROUGH 22N11W 21N117W. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL NE FLOW SPILLS SWD FROM THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO AND WRN CARIBBEAN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO S TO 10N...THEN BECOMES NE-E WESTWARD TO 125W. THIS FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT THROUGHOUT THE AREA N OF 4N. WEAK LOW PRES 1009 MB MOVING NW 10 KT IS NEAR 19N111W. THIS LOW IS JUST ABOUT VOID OF ANY SHOWER AND TSTMS ACTIVITY. ANY DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW MOVING WSW 10-15 KT IS NEAR 16N122W. ONLY BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 129W-132W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS AS SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR IT TO DEVELOP. A WEAK PRES PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. W OF 125W... AN ELONGATED AREA OF MID AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 26.5N125W SW TO 20N140W. EMBEDDED ANTICYCLONES ARE NEAR 25N128W AND 22N135W. THE COMBINATION OF THE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE...AND BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING N OF THE REGION IS RESULTING IN MID/UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW NW OF THE RIDGE. A JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 28N140W AND EXTENDS NEWD TO N OF THE REGION AT 32N125W. A STRONG WIND MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET STREAM IS WELL W OF THE AREA NEAR 25N145W..AND SHOULD CLIP THE FAR NW CORNER DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING AMPLE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA GENERALLY SW OF LINE 25N140W 32N121W TO VICINITY OF THE ITCZ. LIMITED MOISTURE IS SEEN HERE. PATCHES OF MAINLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN NW OF LINE 24N140W TO 32N129W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1020 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 29N133W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 25N121W. HIGH PRES IS PRESENT N OF 21N W OF 121W. $$ AGUIRRE