000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121604 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED SEP 12 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W N OF 6N MOVING W 5 KT. THERE IS WEAK ROTATION IN THE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUD FIELD NEAR THE END OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 101W-106W AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 10N103W TO 15N100W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 132W N OF 5N MOVING W 5 KT. WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE BUT AT A LOW AMPLITUDE. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SEE ITCZ FOR RELATED CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N82W 8N86W 11N99W 17N110W 12N123W 10N140W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 119W-141W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 80W-86W AND N OF THE ITCZ FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 90W-94W. A NEAR STATIONARY 1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 16N114W WITH SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE LOW. ...DISCUSSION... MEXICO... A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS N MEXICO CONNECTED TO A MID-LEVEL HIGH ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 28N114W. THE RIDGE DOES NOT EXTEND VERY DEEP HOWEVER AND THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 24N105W...OR VERY NEAR MAZATLAN. THIS UPPER LOW...COUPLED WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO...IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL HELP TO SPARK TSTM ACTIVITY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TROPICAL PACIFIC... MAINLY E TO NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS TO THE EQUATOR. DEEP MOISTURE IS LOCATED MAINLY N OF 6N WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING IN PATCHES NEAR TROPICAL WAVES AND ALONG THE ITCZ. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REACHES AS FAR N AS 9N E OF 110W WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATUS EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS THE EQUATOR. FARTHER W...THE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO 140W WITH A NE-SW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH THE ITCZ. A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS NEAR 14N118W BUT STILL LACKS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE HAS PLUNGED S TO 11N W OF 122W AND THUS SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A LINEAR ITCZ. SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC... A DEEP-LAYERED CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SIGNATURE NEAR 36N135W AND A WESTERLY JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM 27N140W TO 31N127W. A WEAK 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED BENEATH THE UPPER FEATURE NEAR 34N136W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH REACHING ACROSS THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM S CALIFORNIA/NW MEXICO ALONG 23N126W TO BEYOND 20N140W. LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUD-FREE FROM BAJA TO 130W. $$ WALLACE