000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112216 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE SEP 11 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W N OF 6N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES CONVERGING INTO A FOCAL POINT ON THE WAVE NEAR 9N101W WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 7N100W 10N102W. A SMALL CYCLONIC SWIRL CONSISTING OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 45 NM OF 12N98W. TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 115W/116W IS NOW IDENTIFIED AS A 1010 MB LOW MOVING W 5-10 KT NEAR 13N116W WHERE EARLIER A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION WAS OBSERVED. THE LOW STILL HAS SOME CONNECTION TO THE ITCZ. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TIED MORE TO THE ITCZ ARE SW OF THE LOW WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 11N1119W 12N121W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 131W FROM 6N-17N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SMALL CIRCULATION CHARACTERIZED BY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED IS MOVING WSW AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 30 NM OF 10N131W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-12.5N ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE S OF 14N JOINING UP WITH ITCZ CONVECTION DESCRIBED BELOW. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N79W 10N90W 12N101W 15N110W 11N120W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 113W...AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 81W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 99W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 101W...WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 127W AND 133W...AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 135W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 120W... MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO SOUTHERN BAJA AND TO 23N115W. TO THE SE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THERE IS A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER WESTERN MEXICO NEAR 21.5N103W. MODERATE TO STRONG NE FLOW IS BETWEEN CHANNEL IN BETWEEN BOTH OF THESE FEATURES...AND REACHES WESTWARD TO 112W. EXTENSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA TO THE E OF THE LINE 28N114W 14N120W. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HELPING TO ADVECT THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE ENE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. THE MOISTURE THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND IS BEING USHERED WESTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA TOWARDS 118W AND S OF 28N. A SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W. TO ITS S A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVING W 10-15 KT IS ALONG 105W. THE UPPER FLOW IS NE-E TO THE E OF THE TROUGH WITH ENHANCED TO ITS E IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK PRES PATTERN PERSISTS. W OF 120W... A LARGE MID/UPPER LOW IS LOCATED TO THE N OF THE AREA AND W OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 36N138W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN EVIDENT WITH THIS FEATURE DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 27N. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS SSE INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N133W...AND THEN SSW THROUGH 25N133W TO 18N137W. A JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 27N140W AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AT 27N133W...THEN WEAKENS BEFORE EXTENDING NEWD TO OUT OF THE REGION AT 32N124W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED ON THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH NEAR 17N138W. WSW FLOW ALONG AND S OF THE JET STREAM MERGES WITH NWLY FLOW AROUND THE LARGE MID/UPPER LOW PRODUCING AMPLE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR N OF 17N. MID/UPPER LEVEL DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE BEING USHERED FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE FAR NW SECTION FROM 22N-27N W OF 135W. PATCHES OF MAINLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN NW OF LINE 21.5N140W TO 32N124W. AT THE SURFACE ...A 1021 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 31N126W WITH A RIDGE TO 21N132W. LIMITED MOISTURE UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE IS FOUND THROUGHOUT. $$ AGUIRRE