000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110912
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE SEP 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W/100W N OF 6N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE 
IS POSITIONED ALONG A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING W...BUT OTHERWISE 
IT IS LOCATED BETWEEN TWO STRONGER CIRCULATIONS NOTED NEAR 
12N94W AND 15N105W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 9N-16N 
BETWEEN 94W-101W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 118W S OF 16N MOVING W 5-10 KT. NORTHERLY 
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MOSTLY SUPPRESSING THE WAVE...BUT AN 
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS SOMEWHAT VISIBLE DUE TO EROSION OF THE 
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD TO THE N. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO ALONG 
THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 129W/130W S OF 17N MOVING W 5-10 KT. THE 
WAVE APPEARS WELL-DEFINED IN THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BUT IT IS 
HARD TO DETERMINE IF THE CIRCULATION REACHES TO THE SURFACE. 
EXCEPT FOR CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LIE 
FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 126W-130W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 8N77W 12N94W 15N106W 12N120W 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-8N E OF 79W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 92W-100W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/STRONG FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 106W-117W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 118W-130W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER SW MEXICO NEAR 20N103W WITH A 
TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND DEEP-LAYERED 
MOISTURE BEING PULLED NWD FROM THE PACIFIC WATERS ACROSS MUCH OF 
SE MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MAINLY EASTERLY TO 
THE S OF THE AMERICAN LANDMASS WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH 
EMBEDDED ALONG 105W. A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED S OF 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 12N95W BUT IS CURRENTLY LOOKS 
STRETCHED ALONG AN E/W AXIS. FARTHER W...A 1008 MB LOW IS 
CENTERED NEAR 15N105W BUT IT APPEARS TO BE LOSING ITS IDENTITY 
WITHIN THE ITCZ. FARTHER N...STRONG UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY 
FLOW ACROSS MEXICO HAS PUSHED TSTM ACTIVITY FROM THE WRN MEXICAN 
MOUNTAINS WWD TO THE PACIFIC COAST...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS 
MOVING OFFSHORE NEAR THE ISLAS TRES MARIAS W OF PUERTO VALLARTA.

W OF 110W...
A LARGE MID/UPPER LOW IS LOCATED W OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N136W 
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW REACHING INTO THE AREA N OF 24N W OF 122W. 
THE AIR MASS IS DRY HOWEVER...AND ONLY A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS 
DECK LIES N OF 25N W OF 125W. UPPER LEVEL FLOW W OF 125W IS 
FEEDING INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH SOME CIRRUS 
OUTFLOW FROM ITCZ CONVECTION ATTEMPTING TO REACH FARTHER N BUT 
LARGELY EVAPORATING IN THE DRIER AIR. ELSEWHERE...A STRONG UPPER 
HIGH IS CENTERED JUST W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 28N118W AND THE 
DEEPEST MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO E OF 114W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH 
IS LOCATED JUST W OF SOCORRO ISLAND ALONG 112W BUT IT TOO IS 
DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.

$$
BERG