000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110321
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE SEP 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W N OF 6N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 118W FROM 8N-17N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WELL 
DEFINED BUT LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ALONG 
THE ITCZ. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE 
OTHER THAN ALONG THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 130W FROM 7N-16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A WELL 
DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE NEAR 12N. 
WHILE THERE IS NO GOOD EVIDENCE THAT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS 
FORMING ALONG THE LOW...CYCLOGENESIS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W 11N100W 15N110W 11N125W 11N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 105W AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 119W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 128W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL 
MEXICO NEAR 21N102W...TO NEAR 14N110W. WHILE THIS IS ENHANCING 
EVENING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...E TO NE SHEAR ALOFT IS 
SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE BUILDUPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 110W. 
AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANTS OF FELIX CONTINUE AS A WEAK TROUGH 
S OF BAJA ALONG 110W...COMING IN PHASE WITH LOW PRES 1007 MB 
NEAR 15N106W MOVING W AT 10 KT UNDER SUPPORT OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

FURTHER W...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 21N123W. UPPER 
DIVERGENCE ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ AS OUTLINED ABOVE. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH 
1017 MB IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND 
NORTHER BAJA. THIS IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY UNDER 
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY 
OF THE HIGH PRES FROM OFF THE BAJA COAST TO JUST N OF THE ITCZ 
NEAR 130W. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN