000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102138
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON SEP 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W N OF 8N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. WEAK WAVE 
INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 117W FROM 8N-17N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WELL 
DEFINED BUT LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ALONG 
THE ITCZ. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE 
OTHER THAN ALONG THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 129W FROM 7N-16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. BROAD 
INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL ROTATION ALONG 
THE WAVE NEAR 12N. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS 
WAVE EXCEPT ALONG THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 11N86W 11N99W 15N108W 11N122W 11N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
115W AND 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 127W. 

...DISCUSSION...
E OF 110W...L0W AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED ALONG 100W 
FROM ROUGHLY 8N TO 13N...SUPPORTING WEAK CYCLONIC ROTATION 
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 98W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED 
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N102W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS 
S OF BAJA ALONG 110W...THE REMAINS OF FELIX. SLY CROSS 
EQUATORIAL FLOW INTO THE ITCZ REMAINS LIGHT TO MODERATE. WHILE 
THIS IS LIMITING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THE ITCZ AND 
CONTRIBUTING TO THE WEAK CONVECTION...SOME INCREASE IN THE LOW 
LEVEL SLY FLOW IS EXPECTED W OF 100W THROUGH MID WEEK. NO OTHER 
CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED. 

W OF 110W...BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 21N122W. 
DIVERGENCE ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THIS UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS MENTIONED ABOVE BETWEEN 
115W AND 118W...AND 122W AND 127W. A STABLE AND DRY AIRMASS 
REMAINS IN PLACE N OF THE ITCZ. SURFACE HIGH 1017 MB CENTERED 
NEAR 28N123W. WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ...THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN A BROAD 
ARC ON THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH FROM OFF THE BAJA 
COAST TO JUST N OF THE ITCZ NEAR 130W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN