000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101019
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON SEP 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W N OF 8N MOVING W 12 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING ALONG THE WAVE 
AXIS AT 11N.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 116W FROM 7N TO 17N IS MOVING W 10 KT. THE 
ITCZ AXIS IS STRETCHED A FEW DEG N ALONG WAVE AXIS AND 
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CLUSTERS 
WITHIN 120 NM E OF AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 126W FROM 7N TO 16N MOVING W 10 KT. THE ITCZ 
AXIS IS STRETCHED N ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AND ITCZ CONVECTION IS 
ENHANCED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS AT 12.5N. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 16N99W 10N111W 13N127W 11N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 7N80W 7N92W AND LINE 12N107W 12N114W 
11N119W 13N125W 9N133W 11N136W 11N140W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 32N132W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDING SW TO 26N140W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 
19N123W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A SHARP CREST AT
15N136W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 12N116W 17N112W 23N107W.
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 31N97W...WITH AN UPPER  
RIDGE EXTENDING W ACROSS OLD MEXICO TO A CREST NEAR 26N113W. AN 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 5S90W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING TO 5N BETWEEN 105W AND 85W.

THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY N OF 15N W OF 114W. CONVECTION 
FLARED ALONG THE MEXICAN UPPER RIDGE...ROUGHLY ALONG LINE 20N90W 
18N98W 20N105W 29N109W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS 
ADVECTED W OVER THE PAC WATERS N OF 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 
112W.     

AT THE LOW LEVELS...A TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA 
ALONG 32N128W 27N130W...BLOCKED BY A SURFACE HIGH PRES AT 
25N123W. THE HIGH CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT N FOR ABOUT 24 
HOURS THEN DRIFT W. THE REMNANTS OF CYCLONE FELIX IS ANALYZED AS 
A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 15N110W 221N109W...AND IS WEAKENING 
RAPIDLY.

$$
NELSON