000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092132
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN SEP 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 8N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 114W FROM 7N TO 17N MOVING W 5 TO 10 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE OTHER THAN 
ALONG THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 125W FROM 7N-16N MOVING W 10 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE OTHER THAN ALONG THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 9N84W 10N90W 13N105W 11N120W 12N126W 
11N140W. ISOLATED CONVECTION S OF AXIS FROM 5N TO 7N W OF 87W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 105W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 123W ADN 128W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 135W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...
E OF 110W...SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW MAINLY 
LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW N AND S OF THE ITCZ. ONLY A FEW CLUSTERS 
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS 
IS MAINLY ALONG THE ITCZ AS DESCRIBED ABOVE...WHERE THERE IS 
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT. S OF THE SRN TIP 
OF BAJA...THE REMNANT LOW OF FELIX HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED AND 
OPENED INTO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WITH A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION 
ABOVE IT. SHIP OBSERVATIONS HINT OF CONTINUED LARGE SWELL 
PUSHING N ACROSS THE EQUATOR MAINLY E OF THE GALAPAGOS. THIS 
SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS HOWEVER. NO MAJOR CHANGES 
ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

W OF 110W...BROAD UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N132W. UPPER 
RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 17N121W. SWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESE 
SYSTEM IS ENHANCING MODEST CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. 
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS LACKING MOST EVERYWHERE W 
OF 110W...KEEPING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LIMITED TO THE ITCZ. 
SURFACE HIGH PRES 1017 MB IS CENTER NEAR 26N123W...WITH A WEAK 
TROUGH TO THE NW. LARGE NLY SWELL IS STILL MOVING INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA W OF THE TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO 
MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 120W BY 
LATE TUE AS AN UPPER TROUGH...NOW AROUND 98W...MIGRATES W ALONG 
THE ITCZ. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON THE ERN AND SRN 
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AS THE LOW TO THE S DEVELOPS...WITH 
MODERATE TO FRESH NLY FLOW EXPECTED OFF BAJA BY LATE MONDAY.

$$
CHRISTENSEN