000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091536
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN SEP 9 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W N OF 7N MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 114W FROM 7N-17N MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF WAVE FROM 9N TO 11N.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 124W FROM 7N-16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM E OF WAVE FROM 10N TO 12N.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W 14N105W 11N120W 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 14N BETWEEN 98W AND 102W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
180-240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE N 
OF 5N E OF 81W.

...DISCUSSION...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT N OF 12N E OF 115W. MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM 30N132W TO 24N140W. THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO 
ENHANCE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE REGION N OF 14N.
AS A RESULT...CONVECTION REMAINS VERY SUPPRESSED W OF 115W...EXCEPT 
FOR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ITCZ. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED 
DRY AIR IS ALSO PRESENT S OF 7N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING SW 
AND W FROM AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS MEXICO REACHES TO 110W SHOULD 
HELP DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS 
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 
7N97W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 15N100W.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK PRES PATTERN PREVAILS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT 
WINDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT MAY BEGIN NEAR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
IN ABOUT 36 HRS AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS AS LOW 
PRES REMAINS OVER THE SW UNITED STATES WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE EPAC. 
HIGH PRES RIDGES SEWD INTO THE AREA FROM 30N138W TO 26N132W. A WEAK 
1010 MB LOW NEAR 31N127W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO 24N132W SHOULD 
DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HRS. A SURGE OF INCREASED N-NE WINDS IS EVIDENT 
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY W OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS REPLACED BY HIGH 
PRES WHICH BUILDS SE INTO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. 8-10 FT SWELLS 
ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT IN 24 HRS. LITTLE CHANGE IS THEN 
EXPECTED IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WEAK HIGH 
PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE NW PORTION.

$$
MUNDELL