000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091021 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN SEP 09 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W N OF 6N IS MOVING W 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 9N-13N. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 113W FROM 5N-17N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE WAVE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH ITCZ FROM 9.5N-12N. LITTLE CHANGE IN CONVECTION DISTRIBUTION WITH THIS WAVE HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST 12-24 HRS. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW CLOUD FIELD TAKING PLACE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 12N-16N. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 122W/123W FROM 5N-17N IS MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE SEEN WITHIN 180-240 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 9N-14W. THIS WAVE REMAINS UNDER VERY DRY AIR ALOFT DIMINISHING THE CHANCES FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ALONG OR NEAR THE WAVE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W 12N100W 12N114W 13N124W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 6N-11.5N BETWEEN 93W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N AND S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 118W-124W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 115W... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT N OF 23N AND E TO OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 12N BETWEEN 96W-115W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS PRESENT S OF 6N. AN INVERTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO ROUGHLY FROM 17N96W NW TO NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 24N106W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING SW AND W IN UPPER LEVEL NE WINDS COMING AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS NOW REACHING TO NEAR 110W. ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD FORM OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA LATER TODAY UNDER DAYTIME HEATING. A MID/UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SSW TO 3N97W IS MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 15N101. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 30 NM OF 15N95W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK PRES PATTERN PREVAILS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. OCCASIONAL SLY WINDS TO 20 KT WITH A S SWELL TO 8 FT MAY OCCUR S OF 6N BETWEEN 80W-100W AND ALSO FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. NW FLOW TO 20 KT MAY BEGIN NEAR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 36 HRS AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS AS LOW PRES REMAINS OVER THE SW UNITED STATES WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WATERS. W OF 115W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION THROUGH 30N132W AND CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 23N140W. THE UPPER IS LIGHT SWLY N OF 19N BETWEEN 130W-115W AND W-NW BETWEEN 130W-140W. THIS FLOW CONTINUES TO ENHANCE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 14N. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION REMAINS VERY SUPPRESSED EVEN ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES LIGHT NE OVER THE FAR NW SECTION AS THE TROUGH SWINGS SE OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HRS. BROKEN PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD N OF 21N. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES RIDGES SEWD INTO THE AREA THROUGH 30N138W AND TO 26N132W. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS ANALYZED JUST N OF THE REGION NEAR 31N127W WITH A TROUGH SW TO 24N132W. THE LOW IS FORECAST DISSIPATED IN ABOUT 24-36 HRS. BEHIND THE TROUGH...A SURGE IN INCREASING N-NE WIDENS CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE TROUGH LINGERS IN THE SAME VICINITY THEREAFTER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK AS WEEK HIGH PRES BUILDS SE INTO THE AREA.THE LOW IS ENTRENCHED IN OVERCAST MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE RIDGE IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR NE WINDS TO 20 KT TO PERSIST N OF ABOUT 27N THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS BEFORE SUBSIDING AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE LOW LIFTS NE AND ALSO WEAKENS. SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE IN NE SWELL ARE FORECAST BY THE NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL TO SUBSIDE TO 8 FT IN 30 HRS. LITTLE CHANGE IS THEN EXPECTED IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE NW PORTION. $$ AGUIRRE