000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090329
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN SEP 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W N OF 4N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM E OF WAVE FROM 5N TO 7N.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W N OF 5N MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 120W FROM 4N-17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 9N84W 12N96W 11N116W 13N124W 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 
106W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
E OF 110W...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE 
PERSISTENCE OF THE REMNANT LOW OF FELIX...NOW OFF THE MEXICAN 
COAST NEAR 18N107W AT 1008 MB. THIS LOW WAS ABLE TO SURVIVE 
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MEXICAN MOUNTAINS DUE TO UPPER 
SUPPORT PROVIDED BY AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NW OF THE LOW...NOW 
OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA. THE LOW SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION 
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT THIS MAY BE MOSTLY IN THE MID LEVELS. 
THE LOW MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY SHORTLY IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT 
WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT WANING...NO SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS 
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL MOVE NW TO THE S OF LOS 
CABOS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGING BUILDING 
BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROVIDING NELY SHEAR ACROSS SRN 
MEXICO AND NRN CENTRAL AMERICA. SLY CONVERGENT FLOW HAS 
INCREASED SLIGHTLY ALONG THE ITCZ S OF THE REMNANT LOW OF FELIX. 
HOWEVER...CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO MODERATE NELY SHEAR. 
SHEAR IS CONSIDERABLY LESS FURTHER S...OVER COSTA RICA AND 
PANAMA...WHERE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY ALONG THE ITCZ. 
RESIDUAL 8 FT SWELL PERSISTS E OF THE GALAPAGOS...ALTHOUGH WILL 
LIKELY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NWLY FLOW WILL LIKELY 
INCREASE OFF THE BAJA COAST SUN INTO MON AS SURFACE HIGH PRES 
BUILDS TO THE W.
  
W OF 110W...BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N130W TO 
19N122W...MAINTAIN FAIRLY DRY AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. S OF 
THIS...UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO 16N123W TO 
22N140W. SELY FLOW ALOFT ON THE S SIDE OF THIS RIDGE AXIS IS 
ENHANCING SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS MENTIONED ABOVE. 
OTHERWISE...DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR PREVAILS.  SURFACE HIGH PRES 
1016 MB WILL IS CENTERED NEAR 26N120W...WITH A WEAK TROUGH TO 
THE W EXTENDING FROM 30N124W TO 24N127W. MODERATE TO FRESH NELY 
FLOW IS EVIDENT ON SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS PUSHING 
INTO THE AREA W OF THE TROUGH...ACCOMPANIED BY UP TO 10 FT 
SWELL. THIS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH MON. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN