000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081556
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT SEP 8 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W N OF 3N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM E OF WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W N OF 5N MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION OTHER THAN ALONG ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 120W FROM 4N-16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 8N82W 7N92W 14N100W 13N112W 9N125W 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 6N82W 12N101W AND 30 NM EITHER SIDE LINE 12N101W 8N114W 
AND LINE 14N122W 13N129W 13N134W.

...DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES IN THE REGION SUPPRESSING NEARLY ALL 
CONVECTION W OF 110W. THE REMNANT LOW OF FELIX IS ALONG THE CENTRAL 
MEXICAN COAST NEAR 22N106W...AND A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS 
HELPING GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM
OF 21N106W. SOME REGENERATION OF THE REMNANT LOW IS POSSIBLE AS IT
MOVES OVER WATER...BUT INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 20-25 KT IS UNLIKELY.
THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA IS TRIGGERING ACTIVE
CONVECTION E OF 85W. ITCZ CONVECTION ELSEWHERE IS SPOTTY AT BEST.

THE WEAK SFC TROUGH SW OF SRN CALIFORNIA WILL DISSIPATE MON AND BE 
REPLACED BY A SFC HIGH THAT SLOWLY BUILDS NEAR 28N127W THROUGH WED.

THE SUITE OF GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS INDICATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY 
WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS 
SHOW THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON PICKING UP AGAIN IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. BUT 
UNTIL THEN...CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS 
THROUGH AT LEAST MON OR TUE.

MODERATE TO LARGE N TO NE SWELL N OF 28N AND MODERATE SW SWELL E OF 
THE THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN THEN 
SUBSIDE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED.

$$
MUNDELL