000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080948 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT SEP 08 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W N OF 3N IS MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE WITHIN 30 NM OF 5N84W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W FROM 5N-17N IS MOVING W 5-10 KT. MAIN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS OCCURRING WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE ITCZ AND IS DESCRIBED BELOW UNDER ITCZ. OTHERWISE ...SOME SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD AS DISPLAYED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS PRESENT FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 107W-110W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN THIS SAME AREA. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 119W/120W FROM 5N-17N IS MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE SEEN WITHIN 120-180 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-17N. THIS WAVE REMAINS UNDER VERY DRY AIR ALOFT DIMINISHING THE CHANCES FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ALONG OR NEAR THE WAVE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N85W 12N98W 12N109W 11N115W 13N122W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND 110W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 115W... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT N OF 24N TO OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN MEXICO WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 25N103W. MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 12N BETWEEN 96W-115W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS PRESENT S OF 6N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING SW AND W IN UPPER LEVEL NE WINDS DUE TO THE FLOW PATTERN CREATED BY THE ANTICYCLONE IS EVIDENT N OF 6N. THESE SAME WINDS ARE FORCING DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO PUSH OFF THE COAST IN A SWWD MOTION. EXPECT MORE DEEP CONVECTION TO FORM OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA LATER TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND CYCLONIC EXISTING OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A MID/UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 17N92W SW TO 2N97W IS MOVING W 15 KT. AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FELIX FROM A FEW DAYS AGO IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N104W AND MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. A LARGE CLUSTER OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CIRCULATION EXTENDS FROM 18N-21N E OF 107W TO ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WNW THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W OF THE AREA SE TO 12N115W. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW N OF 12N BUILDS W TO 115W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK PRES PATTERN PREVAILS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. OCCASIONAL SLY WINDS TO 20 KT WITH A S SWELL TO 8 FT MAY OCCUR FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 80W-100W WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS. NW FLOW TO 20 KT MAY BEGIN NEAR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 36 HRS AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS AS LOW PRES REMAINS OVER THE SW UNITED STATES WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WATERS. W OF 115W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHEAR AXIS DROPS INTO THE REGION THROUGH 30N128.5W AND CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 16N132W. TO THE W OF THE TROUGH...A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 19N139W WITH A RIDGE N TO 25N139W. THE UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND ANTICYCLONE IS LIGHT SWLY N OF 19N BETWEEN 127W-115W AND W-NW BETWEEN 127W-136W. THIS FLOW CONTINUES TO ENHANCE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 14N. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION REMAINS VERY SUPPRESSED EVEN ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES LIGHT E-SE OVER THE FAR NW SECTION. BROKEN PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD N OF 16N. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES RIDGES SEWD INTO THE AREA THROUGH 30N136W AND TO 23N129W. A WEAK STATIONARY 1012 MB LOW IS ANALYZED TO BE NEAR 32N124.5W. THE LOW IS ENTRENCHED IN OVERCAST MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE RIDGE IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR NE WINDS TO 20 KT TO PERSIST N OF ABOUT 27N THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS BEFORE SUBSIDING AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE LOW LIFTS NE AND ALSO WEAKENS. SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE IN NE SWELL ARE THEN FORECAST BY THE NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL TO SUBSIDE TO 8 FT IN 48 HRS. LITTLE CHANGE IS THAN EXPECTED IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE NW PORTION. $$ AGUIRRE