000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072137
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI SEP 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT. DIMINISHING LIGHT 
TO MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W N OF 6N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 117W FROM 6N-18N MOVING W 15 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 9N83W 13N101W 8N123W 9N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER E CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 
21N98W...PROVIDING MODERATE NE TO E SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
AREA E OF 110W AND SUPPRESSING CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART. THE 
WEAK REMNANT LOW OF FELIX IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL MEXICAN 
MOUNTAINS AND IS NO LONGER A FACTOR FOR PACIFIC WEATHER. WEAK 
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAD BEEN SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE SW MEXICAN COAST...BUT THIS 
HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED UNDER THE UPPER SHEAR. DIVERGENCE ON THE 
SE SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
IS SUPPORTING MODEST CONVECTION ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 
MANZANILLO...BUT THIS IS DYING OUT AS WELL. SW CONVERGENCE OFF 
THE COLOMBIAN COAST ALONG WITH LIGHT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTED A 
MORNING BURST OF CONVECTION S OF PANAMA AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED 
THROUGH THE AREA...BUT THIS CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AS WELL. W 
OF 110W...CONTINUED DRY AND STABLE AIR PERSISTS. 

THE VARIOUS GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS INDICATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY 
WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. THE SOUTHWEST 
MONSOON IS NOT NEARLY AS ACTIVE...AND CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR 
TO FAVOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS THROUGH MON.

MODERATE TO LARGE SWELL PERSISTS N OF 28N...THE RESULT OF STRONG 
NLY FLOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO 
LARGE SLY SWELL PERSISTS NEAR THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THE SWELL 
IN BOTH AREAS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN 
SUBSIDE. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN