000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071558
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI SEP 7 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
S OF 7N WITHIN 90 NM E OF WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104W N OF 6N MOVING W 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION OTHER THAN ALONG ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 115W FROM 6N-18N MOVING W 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION OTHER THAN ALONG ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 8N83W 15N100W 9N120W 9N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N TO 7N E OF 81W AND N OF 
10N BETWEEN 96W AND 104W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND IS 
SUPPRESSING NEARLY ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY W OF 105W. WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N107W SPREADING MID LEVEL 
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SRN BAJA PENINSULA. THE MOST PROMINENT SURFACE 
FEATURE IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FELIX...
LOCATED NEAR 18N97W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THIS 1010 MB LOW IS 
PRODUCING SCATTERED CONVECTION N OF 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 101W. THIS 
LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PROBABLY PERSIST THROUGH SAT.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SW OF SRN 
CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS...WITH A WEAK 1015 MB SFC LOW NEARLY 
STATIONARY NEAR 29N126W. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE STRENGTH 
AND COVERAGE OF TRADE WINDS IN THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
SWELLS GENERATED BY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST 
WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE BASIN TODAY THROUGH SUN WITH
MAX SEAS TO 9-10 FT.

THE VARIOUS GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS INDICATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL 
REMAIN SUPPRESSED FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON IS NOT
NEARLY AS ACTIVE...AND CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR TROPICAL 
CYCLOGENESIS THROUGH MON.

$$
MUNDELL