000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071024 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI SEP 07 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W FROM 6N-17N IS SLOWLY MOVING W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 111W/112 FROM 5N-17N IS MOVING WEST 5-10 KT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 12N-16N. THIS WAVE HAS VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF ACQUIRING DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS AS IT REMAINS UNDER A DRY UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N85W 14N96W 14N104W 10N110W 9N120W 9N130W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 112.5W-116W. SCATTERED STRONG S OF THE AXIS FROM 3N-7N E OF 78W TO ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 130W... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT N OF 19N E OF 115W TO OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. TO THE W OF THE RIDGING THE FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING E 10-15 KT N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N126W. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF DRY AIR COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA W OF 114W...AND ALSO S OF 3N E OF 114W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING W AND SW IS EVIDENT N OF 3N E OF 114W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MEXICO NEAR 23N103W SW TO 15N109W IS MOVING W 15 KT. AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FELIX FROM A FEW DAYS AGO IS NOTED NEAR 15N96W MOVING W 10-15 KT. A SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS TO ITS N NEAR 21N97W. THE SURFACE REMNANT LOW MOVING WNW 10-15 KT IS LOCATED OVER SE MEXICO NEAR 18N96W 1010 MB. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10-15 KT EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM 17N120W SW TO 10N127W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 14N96W 16N101W. SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND THE ANTICYCLONE ARE AIDING THIS CONVECTION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. MODERATE NE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO THE SE AND S OF THE ANTICYCLONE ARE RESULTING IN NE SHEAR THROUGHOUT THUS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION FROM BECOMING STRONG OVER THE AREA PRIMARILY TO THE E OF 97W. UPPER LEVEL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE NE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 48-72 HRS. W OF 130W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES THROUGH 26N130W 26N140W AND NW TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW W OF THE AREA NEAR 28N144W. A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR 16N136W WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING N TO 24N136W. WNW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE AND TROUGH CONTINUES TO ENHANCE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THIS AREA N OF 14N. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION REMAINS VERY SUPPRESSED EVEN ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ. BROKEN PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD N OF 15N. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK PRES PATTERN GENERALLY EXISTS THROUGHOUT EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW CORNER WHERE RIDGING IS ANALYZED. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IS EXPECTED IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. $$ AGUIRRE