000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070316
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI SEP 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W N OF 5N MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OTHER THAN ALONG ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 111W BETWEEN 6N-17N MOVING WEST LESS THAN 10 
KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 17N95W 11N103W 13N113W 11N134W 
10N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL MEXICO 
NEAR 19N104W. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT LOW OF FELIX IS 
CENTERED OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 18N94W. THE LOW IS 
SITUATED UNDER WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF 
THE UPPER LOW...ALLOWING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 
15N TO 16N BETWEEN 97W AND 99W...AS WELL AS IN THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE. MID LEVEL LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 15N96W TO THE E FO 
THE CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK W AND GRADUALLY 
WEAKENS TO A TROUGH AND DAMPENS OUT. WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES WILL 
EMERGE OFF THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR PUERTO VALLARTA BY LATE THU. 
ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN 
MEXICO...TO THE W OF THE REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE NOW MOVING INTO 
SW NEW MEXICO. A BROAD SWATH OF NELY SHEAR ALOFT BETWEEN THIS 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES 
TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER AREA EXCEPT FOR THE AREA MENTIONED 
ABOVE. MEANWHILE RESIDUAL MODERATE TO LARGE SWELL FROM S OF THE 
EQUATOR PERSIST BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS AND COSTA RICA. THIS WILL 
SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...LEAVING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS 
AND SEAS OVER THE AREA.

W OF 110W...SUBSIDENT DRY AIR PERSISTS OVER THE AREA WITH NO 
NOTABLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SWELL GENERATED FROM NLY FLOW 
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS MOVING INTO THE AREA GENERALLY N OF 
20N BETWEEN 120W AND 135W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN