000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062128
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU SEP 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W N OF 5N MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OTHER THAN ALONG ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W BETWEEN 6N-17N MOVING WEST LESS THAN 10 
KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 14N92W 10N104W 11N109W 9N115W 11N130W 
20N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 101W AND 103W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 
18N100W. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT LOW OF FELIX IS CENTERED 
JUST E OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 17N92W. THE LOW IS 
SITUATED UNDER WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF 
THE UPPER LOW...ALLOWING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 
12N TO 14N BETWEEN 97W AND 99W...AS WELL AS IN THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK W...BUT GRADUALLY 
WEAKEN TO A TROUGH AND DAMPEN OUT. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...TO THE W OF THE 
REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE NOW MOVING INTO SW NEW MEXICO. A BROAD 
SWATH OF NELY SHEAR ALOFT BETWEEN THIS UPPER ANTICYCLONE AND AN 
UPPER LOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION 
OVER AREA EXCEPT FOR THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. MEANWHILE 
RESIDUAL MODERATE TO LARGE SWELL FROM S OF THE EQUATOR PERSIST 
BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS AND COSTA RICA. THIS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE 
NEXT DAY OR TWO...LEAVING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS OVER 
THE AREA.

W OF 110W...SUBSIDENT DRY AIR PERSISTS OVER THE AREA WITH NO 
NOTABLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SWELL GENERATED FROM NLY FLOW 
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS MOVING INTO THE AREA GENERALLY N OF 
28N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN