000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060345
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU SEP 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HENRIETTE MOVED ONSHORE EARLIER THIS EVENING AT HURRICANE 
STRENGTH NEAR GUAYMAS MEXICO...AND HAS SINCE WEAKENED TO A 
TROPICAL STORM. AT 06/0300Z...THE CENTER WAS INLAND NEAR 28.8N 
110.8W...OR ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HERMOSILLO MEXICO 
AND ABOUT 55 MILES NORTH OF GUAYMAS MEXICO. HENRIETTE WAS MOVING 
NORTH AT 13 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 55 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 65 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 985 
MB. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY 
UNDER TCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS EXTEND UP TO 60 NM FROM THE CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HENRIETTE IS MOVING 
INLAND OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS...IN SOUTHERN 
SONORA AND WESTERN CHIHUAHUA. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 
12 INCHES POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.  THESE RAINS COULD 
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ON 
THURSDAY...RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER 
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE ITCZ 
MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N91W 10N96W 11N103W 9N1112 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 91W 
AND 95W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 115W...OUTSIDE OF HENRIETTE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...CONVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE AREA. NLY 
FLOW ALOFT ON THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
COVERS THE WATERS MAINLY E OF 100W...SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE SCATTERED 
MODERATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PANAMA AND NW COSTA 
RICA WHERE SLY FLOW IS CONVERGING ONSHORE IN HIGHER TERRAIN. AN 
UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AS 
WELL...IMPARTING SUBSIDENT DRY AIR OVER THE REMAINDER OF PACIFIC 
WATERS W OF 110W. THE REMNANT LOW OF HURRICANE FELIX...NOW OVER 
WESTERN HONDURAS/EASTERN GUATEMALA...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE W 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THU. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS 
BEING ENHANCED BY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF 
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LOW 
WILL LIKELY OPEN INTO A TROUGH THEN DAMPEN OUT AS IT MOVES 
W...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE N. 
REDUCING SOME OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW. 
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA STARTING TONIGHT AS HENRIETTE MOVES ASHORE AND 
WEAKENS. 

W OF 115W...UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N123W. UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 17N135W. NWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN 
THE TWO SYSTEMS IS MAINTAINING FAIRLY DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS 
THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 115W AND 140W WITH NO 
APPRECIABLE CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO CHANGES 
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE AT THE 
SURFACE...NLY SWELL IS NOTED IN SHIP OBSERVATIONS MOVING S OFF 
THE COAST OF SRN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN SUBSIDE.

$$
CHRISTENSEN