000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED SEP 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HENRIETTE WAS NEAR 27.0N 110.7W...MOVING 
NORTH 10 KT AT 05/2100Z. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 70 NM/115 KM S 
OF GUAYAMAS MEXICO. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 65 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 
980 MB. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY 
UNDER TCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS EXTENDS UP TO 110 NM TO THE E OF HENRIETTE...60 NM TO THE 
W OF THE CENTER. WHILE CONVECTION IS WEAKENING AROUND THE STORM 
AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND...THERE IS STILL NUMEROUS MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN LOS 
MOCHIS AND GUAYMAS. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 
12 INCHES POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.  THESE RAINS COULD 
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE 
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE 
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE 
HURRICANE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED UNTIL 
LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS FORECAST ONCE HENRIETTE MOVES INLAND OVER 
MAINLAND MEXICO LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE ITCZ 
MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N89W TO 10N92W TO 11N122W TO 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 96W AND 104W. 

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 115W...OUTSIDE OF HENRIETTE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...CONVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE AREA. NLY 
FLOW ALOFT ON THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
COVERS THE WATERS MAINLY E OF 100W...SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE SCATTERED 
MODERATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PANAMA AND NW COSTA 
RICA WHERE SLY FLOW IS CONVERGING ONSHORE IN HIGHER TERRAIN. AN 
UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AS 
WELL...IMPARTING SUBSIDENT DRY AIR OVER THE REMAINDER OF PACIFIC 
WATERS W OF 110W. THE REMNANT LOW OF HURRICANE FELIX...NOW OVER 
WESTERN HONDURAS/EASTERN GUATEMALA...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE W 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THU. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS 
BEING ENHANCED BY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF 
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LOW 
WILL LIKELY OPEN INTO A TROUGH THEN DAMPEN OUT AS IT MOVES 
W...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE N. 
THIS WILL REDUCE SOME OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
REMNANT LOW. NONETHELESS...HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER 
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. WINDS AND 
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA STARTING TONIGHT AS HENRIETTE MOVES ASHORE AND 
WEAKENS. 

W OF 115W...UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N123W. UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 17N135W. NWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN 
THE TWO SYSTEMS IS MAINTAINING FAIRLY DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS 
THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 115W AND 140W WITH NO 
APPRECIABLE CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO CHANGES 
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE AT THE 
SURFACE...NLY SWELL IS NOTED IN SHIP OBSERVATIONS MOVING S OFF 
THE COAST OF SRN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN SUBSIDE.

$$
CHRISTENSEN