000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051544 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED SEP 05 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HENRIETTE WAS NEAR 26.0N 110.1W... MOVING NORTH 10 KT. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 110 NM/200 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA PAZ MEXICO...AND ABOUT 60 NM/110 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 980 MB. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER TCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 110W AND 111W...AND FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 108W AND 110W. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 104W AND 111W. HENRIETTE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS FORECAST ONCE HENRIETTE MOVES INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 13 NM/24 KM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 NM/200 KM FROM THE CENTER. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W/96W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 KT THROUGH AND TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 14.5N95W FOUR TO FIVE HOURS AGO. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP SINCE THEN...AND THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W/104W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 103W AND 106W. ...ITCZ... FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER NEAR 8N77W TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA NEAR 11N86W...10N97W 10N102W...10N85W 7N124W 10N140W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N94W 9N98W 8N104W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 105W AND 116W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 115W AND 140W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CELLS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 8N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 8.5N EAST OF 82W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND SOUTH OF PANAMA. ...DISCUSSION... NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND...MOVING FROM WESTERN HONDURAS INTO MOSTLY EASTERN GUATEMALA...AND POSSIBLY CLIPPING A BIT OF SOUTHERN BELIZE...FROM 15N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W. SOME OF THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING COMPARATIVELY WITH TIME DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE...SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA...AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING COMPARATIVELY DURING THE LAST THREE TO FOUR HOURS... FROM 11N TO LAND BETWEEN 88W AND 93W. THIS ACTIVITY IS RELATED TO THE REMNANTS OF FELIX. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N96W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS MEXICO NORTH OF ITS PACIFIC OCEAN COAST BETWEEN 93W...INCLUDING THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND 102W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA/ CALIFORNIA NEAR 33N115W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N121W TO 17N120W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 13N134W TO 22N137W. A SMALL MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N135W. $$ MT