000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050942
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED SEP 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE HENRIETTE CENTERED NEAR 25.0N 109.9W...WHICH IS
ABOUT 60 NM NNE OF LA PAZ MEXICO...AND 80 NM SW OF LOS
MOCHIS MEXICO MOVING N AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 
IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
IS 980 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE APPEARANCE 
OF THE SPIRAL BANDS APPEARS RATHER BROKEN NEAR THE CENTER...BUT 
OVERALL SYSTEM STRUCTURE HIS HOLDING ITS SYMMETRICAL APPEARANCE 
AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH LAND. TWO LARGE CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE EMBEDDED IN THE BANDS WITH ONE 
BEING 120 NM SSW OF THE CENTER...THE OTHER 75 NM N OF THE 
CENTER. HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND NW MEXICO AND 
WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W N OF 5N TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS
MOVING W 10 KT. THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THIS WAVE NOTED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION HAS JUST 
RECENTLY DEVELOPED WITHIN 30 NM OF 15N95W. A SWIRL OF LOW/MID 
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IS SEEN ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 
30 NM OF 13N95W.

TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 102W N OF 5N MOVING W 10 KT IS 
RELOCATED TO ALONG 101W BASED ON IR VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 
1009 MB LOW IS NOTED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N101W. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V 
SIGNATURE DENOTING THIS WAVE. WITH DRY ALOFT IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WAVE DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED
TO AN EXTENT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN
120 NM E AND 60 NM W OF THE WAVE WHERE THE ITCZ INTERSECTS THE
WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W 10N100W 10N110W 10N120W
12N130W 12N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 83W-86W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 99W-110W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 125W...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ORIENTED ACROSS MEXICO ALONG A NE/SW 
AXIS FROM THE TEXAS COAST TO JUST S OF HURRICANE HENRIETTE. THE 
RIDGE IS AIDING IN THE UPPER OUTFLOW OF THE HURRICANE WITH SOME 
OF THIS MOISTURE BEING PULLED NE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM NORTHERN TEXAS WNW TO SE 
ARIZONA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD IS NOTED 
NEAR 24.5N122W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO SHEAR OUT INTO A TROUGH
WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING WESTWARD 
15 KT OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS AN ASSOCIATED WEAK 
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SE MEXICO AND INTO 
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND S TO NEAR 12N95W. ANOTHER UPPER 
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 17 KT IS TO THE SW 
OF HENRIETTE EXTENDING FROM 16N113W TO 10N120W. AMPLE DRY AIR 
COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA W OF 115W...AND ALSO S OF 6N E 
OF 125W.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELIX DISSIPATING OVER THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER IS MOVING W AT 8 KT. ITS S FORECAST TO DISSIPATED IN 
ABOUT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION IS OCCURRING FROM 11N-14N E 
OF 90W TO INLAND WESTERN NICARAGUA.

W OF 125W...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SSE 15 KT EXTENDS THROUGH 31N125W
WSW TO 30N131W...THEN CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TO OUT OF THE AREA
AT 32N135W. A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS 
LOCATED NEAR 17N131W WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TO 24N. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES RATHER DIFFLUENT OVER 
THE FAR SW PORTION OF THIS AREA...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY 
MOISTURE DUE TO ABUNDANT MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY 
AIR OCCURRING THROUGHOUT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD 
10-15 KT IS ALONG 17N139W 10N140W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 
WITHIN 120 E AND 75 NM W OF THE TROUGH. THE ONLY STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS PRESENT ARE SEEN AS BROKEN IN PATCHES MOVING 
SOUTHWESTWARD NW OF LINE 17N140W 23N127W 32N122W. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE CLOUDS. A WEAK PRES PATTERN 
GENERALLY EXISTS HERE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW CORNER 
OF THE AREA WHERE RIDGING IS FOUND EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO 
THE AREA.
 
$$
AGUIRRE