000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050329
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU SEP 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE HENRIETTE CENTERED NEAR 24.1N 109.7W...OR 40 NM E OF 
LA PAZ MEXICO...AT 05/0300 UTC MOVING N 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED HAS DECREASED TO 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS. HENRIETTE TOOK A SHORT TREK ACROSS THE SRN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA WHICH LASTED ALL OF ABOUT 3 OR 4 HOURS. THE CENTER 
NOW APPEARS TO HAVE EMERGED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR 
PERHAPS JUST HUGGING THE ERN COAST OF THE PENINSULA. THE 
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE HOLDING UP FAIRLY 
WELL WITH ONE SPIRAL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE W AND S SIDE OF 
THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...AND OTHER SCATTERED CONVECTION 
MOVING N ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE 
STATES OF SINALOA AND SONORA. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S AND 90 NM N SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ALSO FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 107W-111W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W N OF 5N TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
MOVING W 10 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS NEARLY INVISIBLE DUE TO THE 
DOMINATING CIRCULATIONS OF HURRICANE FELIX AND THE TROPICAL WAVE 
FARTHER W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W N OF 5N MOVING W 10 KT WITH A 1009 MB 
LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 9N102W. A WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V 
SIGNATURE IS NOTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY SW OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND INDICATES THAT THE WAVE MAY BE TILTED SLIGHTLY 
NE TO SW. THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY IN THE VICINITY AND THUS 
THERE ARE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 
100W-105W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W 9N100W 6N110W 13N133W 
12N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 6N BETWEEN 
85W-90W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ORIENTED ACROSS MEXICO ALONG A NE/SW 
AXIS FROM THE TEXAS COAST TO JUST S OF HURRICANE HENRIETTE. THE 
RIDGE IS AIDING IN THE UPPER OUTFLOW OF THE HURRICANE WITH SOME 
OF THIS MOISTURE BEING PULLED NE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE UPPER 
TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN OVER NRN MEXICO HAS BEEN PUSHED TO THE NW 
AND NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR EL PASO TEXAS TO THE NRN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...THEN CONNECTING TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N123W. 
FARTHER SE...AN UPPER LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TO NEAR 14N95W. A PATCH OF DRY AIR CONTINUES TO 
MOVE W WITH THE TROUGH...COVERING THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 
99W-110W.

FELIX HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR THE 
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER TO A 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MORNING AS IT TRACKS W ACROSS HONDURAS. 
SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE FORMED JUST TO THE W OF FELIX AS THE 
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WAS LIFTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS RUNNING ALONG 
CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION LIES N OF 
9N BETWEEN 85W-91W MOVING OFFSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS.

W OF 110W...
THERE IS VERY LITTLE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE REST OF THE 
TROPICAL PACIFIC. A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR EXTENDS W OF 115W 
WITH A LARGE UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 17N130W AND AN UPPER LOW 
NEAR 25N123W. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE PATCH OF NEARLY 
CLOUDLESS SKIES N OF 19N E OF 135W TO THE BAJA PENINSULA...BUT 
THE AIR MASS IS BEGINNING TO MODIFY ABOVE THE COOL PACIFIC 
WATERS WITH A FEW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BEGINNING TO FORM. A 
WEAKENING COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA 
AND SHOULD DIE LATER TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM 
THE N.
 
$$
BERG