000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041807
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED SEP 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HENRIETTE WAS NEAR 22.9N 109.4W AT
04/1500 UTC...OR ABOUT 50 NM/95 KM SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. HENRIETTE WAS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST 9 KT.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
THE MINIMUM ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 972 MB. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER TCPEP1/ 
WTPZ31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND 
OUTWARD UP TO 22 NM/35 KM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM 
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 122 NM/220 KM FROM THE CENTER.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE 
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE 
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF 
HENRIETTE. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL 
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND 
MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. 
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 
5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES 
POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE 
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. NUMEROUS STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 108W AND 110W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 
18N BETWEEN 107W AND 110W...AND FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 114W AND 
117W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W/93W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. THIS WAVE STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS MEXICO BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N
TO 20N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
A WELL-DEFINED BUT BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED IN THE 
LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE ITCZ FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W.

...ITCZ...

10N86W 10N91W 8N93W 9N93W 10N98W 13N107W 11N115W 13N135W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 
80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 80W AND 
100W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
MIXED IN THAT AREA FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
90W AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF HURRICANE FELIX. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W AWAY 
FROM THE 100W TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N 
TO 13N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WAS NEAR 
25N124W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM TO 20N TO 30N 
BETWEEN 114W AND 130W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 19N130W TO 27N134W. 
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N134W 14N138W 9N140W MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH.
 
$$
MT