000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031527
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON SEP 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE CENTERED NEAR 19.9N108.5W OR ABOUT 185 
MILES WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AT 03/1500 UTC MOVING NW 10 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. HENRIETTE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND IS 
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. THE DEEPEST 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE SE 
SEMICIRCLE AND ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN A 90 NM 
RADIUS OF 16N109W. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER 
THE S CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W N OF 7N INTO W HONDURAS IS MOVING W 
ABOUT 10 KT. MINIMAL CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE 
AND IS BARELY IDENTIFIABLE ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE 
IMAGERY.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W N OF 6N INTO MEXICO IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 
KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND UP TO 3 TO 
4 DEGREES W OF THE WAVE AXIS. EASTERLIES ALOFT WILL IMPEDE 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N79W 9N96W 14N120W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE 5N80W 10N106W AND 
ELSEWHERE N OF 8N E OF 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 7N TO 13N W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N...
AN ELONGATED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED 
NEAR 26N124W...MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE 
AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 130W. 
THE REMNANTS OF GIL ARE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 20N125W.

S OF 15N...
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE DEEP TROPICS WITH SATELLITE 
DERIVED WINDS INDICATING THE STRONGEST FLOW...TO 40 KT...BETWEEN 
100W AND 125W. SOUTHERLY SWELLS TO 8 FEET ARE LOCATED OVER THE 
AREA S OF 11N W OF 93W.  
 
$$
CAB