000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030321 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON SEP 03 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE CENTERED NEAR 18.9N 107.0W...OR 145 NM SW OR PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO...AT 03/0300 UTC MOVING NW 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. HENRIETTE HAS BEEN UNABLE TO STRENGTHEN TO HURRICANE STATUS AND IN FACT ITS INFRARED SATELLITE PRESENTATION LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN IT HAS OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO. THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BANDING IS LIMITED OVER THE SRN SEMICIRCLE...AS THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT DRY AIR LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA PENINSULA ARE BEING INGESTED INTO THE CIRCULATION. SHEAR VALUES ARE LESS THAN 10 KT BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT COOLER WATERS ARE BEING UPWELLED TO THE SURFACE BENEATH HENRIETTE DUE TO THE RECENT SLOW MOTION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 270 NM S AND 120 NM N SEMICIRCLES. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W N OF 6N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS MOST EVIDENT FARTHER N OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH VERY LITTLE SIGNATURE OVER THE E PACIFIC WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LIE ACROSS HONDURAS SE TOWARDS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W/95W N OF 6N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED NEAR 8N94W WITH BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING EXTENDING FARTHER N TOWARDS 14N. EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED TSTMS OVER GUATEMALA AND SRN MEXICO...THERE IS LITTLE ACTIVITY OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 8N77W 13N94W 15N105W 13N120W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 3N-8N E OF 79W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 100W-105W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 110W... A FEW CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO. THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WAS OVER MEXICO HAS BECOME RE-ORIENTED DUE TO THE OUTFLOW OF T.S. HENRIETTE AND NOW EXTENDS FROM THE STORM NE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING W ALONG 90W IN ADVANCE OF HURRICANE FELIX OVER THE CARIBBEAN...AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS S OF THE EL SALVADOR COAST BETWEEN 87W-94W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES LIE S OF 10N WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR 50 KT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS E OF 100W WITH T.S. HENRIETTE PULLING MOST OF THE MOISTURE NW ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. FARTHER N...A CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR CHIHUAHUA MEXICO WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR FILTERING SWD ACROSS NW MEXICO. SOME OF THIS DRY AIR COULD BE INFILTRATING INTO THE CIRCULATION OF T.S. HENRIETTE AND ARRESTING ITS DEVELOPMENT FOR THE TIME BEING. W OF 110W... CONDITIONS ARE VERY QUIET ACROSS THE REST OF THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES CONTINUE WWD S OF 10N TO ABOUT 130W WITH THE FLOW THEN BECOMING VARIABLE BETWEEN 130W-140W. N OF 20N...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM SRN CALIFORNIA SW TO 26N140W WITH TWO WEAK TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALONG 122W AND 135W. THE REMNANT OF GIL IS LOCATED NEAR 20N124W WITH A PRES OF 1008 MB AND THIS CIRCULATION SHOULD OPEN UP WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS. IT IS EMBEDDED IN A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST W OF THE CENTER. ELSEWHERE THERE IS VERY LITTLE GOING ON EXCEPT THAT THE TAIL END OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE ON TUE. $$ BERG