000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020316 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN SEP 02 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 106.1W...OR 100 NM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AT 02/0300 UTC MOVING WNW 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. THE LAST FEW INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A WARM SPOT APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING WITH A WEAK RING OF CONVECTION SURROUNDING IT. STRONGER CONVECTION LIES MOSTLY TO THE N AND W OF THE CENTER BUT IN GENERAL THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT IS NEARING THE CUSP OF HURRICANE STATUS. HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FALL OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO S OF 22N AND W OF 95W...AND MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6" ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HENRIETTE WILL MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM MAINLAND MEXICO AND STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY...BUT THEN IS EXPECTED TO HEAD N TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM S AND 180 NM N SEMICIRCLES. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL IS CENTERED NEAR 19.3N 122.4W...OR 725 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AT 02/0300 UTC MOVING WNW 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. AS EXPECTED...GIL HAS BEEN PRODUCING INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH ONE IMPRESSIVE FLARE-UP OCCURRING WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS GENERALLY LIGHT AT THE MOMENT...ABOUT 10 KT OUT OF THE EAST...BUT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY DECREASING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE SYSTEM IS RUNNING INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. CONTINUED FLARE-UPS OF CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED AS GIL SPINS DOWN TO A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM W AND 45 NM E SEMICIRCLES. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W N OF 5N MOVING W 10-15 KT ACROSS GUATEMALA. THE WAVE DOES NOT HAVE A STRONG SIGNATURE ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION INDICATE THAT A WEAK CIRCULATION COULD BE LOCATED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 10N. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE LOCATED PRIMARILY OVER LAND FROM WRN NICARAGUA TO SRN MEXICO. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N77W 8N83W 13N100W 8N129W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 97W-102W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 110W... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS RUNS E/W ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO WITH CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES EXTENDING ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS E OF 110W. CLOUD-DRIFT WINDS AND GFS GUIDANCE BOTH INDICATE A MODERATE NE/E JET EXTENDING FROM THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER SW TO 6N100W THEN TURNING W JUST N OF THE EQUATOR. T.S. HENRIETTE HAS LIFTED JUST N OF THIS AREA OF STRONGEST SHEAR AND IS NOW EMBEDDED NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS...ALLOWING FOR AN EXPANSION OF ITS UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CANOPY. THE DEEPEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CURRENTLY RUNS NW/SE OFF THE MEXICAN/CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST AND NWD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SPILLING ACROSS FROM NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA. FARTHER N OVER MEXICO...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND ONTO THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AND TSTMS FORMING FROM THE SW U.S. MONSOON ARE BEING DRAGGED SWD ACROSS THE STATE OF SONORA. W OF 110W... AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SW TO 22N140W WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE AREA W OF 110W. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. GIL AND THE OUTFLOW OF T.S. HENRIETTE...BUT THIS IS MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE PREDOMINANTLY STABLE AND DRY WITH ALMOST NO CLOUDS N OF 20N E OF 122W TO THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS N OF 20N W OF 122W. THE TRADES REMAIN LIMITED TO THE AREA W OF 130W SINCE THE ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH OFF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PULL THE FLOW EWD INTO HENRIETTE. $$ BERG